After the election exam, the government thinks as follows.For the first time in nearly three years, Congress will be able to approve a budget law. needed to make progress by 2026. This was approved by the Treasurer. carlos gubermanthis Thursday, in front of representatives of the financial community.
Guberman participates 20th Annual Capital Markets Symposium Sponsored by IAEF (Argentina Financial Executives Association)a place with which he has had a long relationship even before he took up his post at the Ministry of Economy. Officials said that in the current scenario, “The political conditions are now in place to allow Parliament to approve a budget law.“By the end of the year.
In this sense he was conciliatory with the governors, but declared: “The only line that cannot be crossed is fiscal balance.”
The official emphasized that, unlike in the past, the government is “living solely on revenue generated from taxes,” without relying on issuing money or borrowing money. “From day one, we decided to live with what is ours.”. No need to go into debt or use machinery to pay for costs” he said.
Mr. Guberman identified three axes to guide budget policy. These include social assistance to vulnerable sectors, strengthening of the security forces and defense forces, and deregulation of the private sector.
“The aim is to provide capabilities to the military and security forces, while at the same time unencumbering the private sector and enabling investment and job creation,” he explained.
Regarding the 2026 budget, he indicated that the government is maintaining its macroeconomic forecasts. The estimated growth rate is 5% and the average inflation rate is 14%. “We continue to believe that these values are reasonable and likely.. “I don’t see any element of reviewing the nominal value of the budget.” he stated.
The official said that because 85% of public spending is predetermined by retirement benefits, salaries and debt interest, The key is to maintain fiscal rules that prevent spending surpluses due to inflation.he said, a practice that characterized previous governments.
Regarding the dollar, Mr. Guberman explained: The scenario envisaged in the budget bill envisaged a “slight decline in the level of the nominal exchange rate.” Of these, after two terms of political and financial instability, they were finally integrated. However, he declared that New prices ‘do not change macroeconomic forecasts’ of the government.
“Exchange rates settled at higher than expected levels at the end of July“But I see no reason to change the nominal value of the budget or the direction of economic policy,” he said.
The official asserted that following continued election uncertainty: Markets “tended to stabilize” And executives said they believe the currency scenario will remain predictable next year.
Regarding the reform agenda initiated by changes in Congress, Mr. Guberman emphasized: gradual tax reduction The Javier Millay government is already doing it and pointing it out from December 2023 Taxes were reduced “equivalent to 2.5 percentage points of GDP”. through the elimination of national taxes and a temporary reduction in import duties.
“These resources do not come from the state, but from the private sector. Our priority is to return the ability to invest to taxpayers, either by lowering taxes or accelerating the refund of VAT and profits,” he said.
At this point, he announced that the roadmap takes into account structural changes from the following perspectives: Labor, pensions, taxesbut made it clear The reforms will be implemented “in stages”. “We’re not going to come up with a one-off reform plan.” For the next 100 years. “The path will proceed safely, step by step, without jumping into white space,” he said.
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