This Wednesday (12th), NASA prepared to launch its latest robotic mission to Mars, ESCAPADE, aboard a Blue Origin rocket. However, the company said in a social media post that the launch was canceled due to “very active solar activity and potential impacts to the spacecraft.”
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On Tuesday, two explosions of solar material caused by a pair of powerful coronal mass ejections (massive explosions on the Sun’s surface that release streams of charged particles) collided with Earth’s magnetic bubble in space. The phenomenon causes a light show in the night sky that can be seen again Wednesday night into Thursday. But solar storms and ongoing activity also require close monitoring of orbiting satellite constellations and ongoing missions.
Solar activity reaches its 11-year peak
“History shows that these combined coronal mass ejections and overlapping storms are the most important for space weather impacts,” explained Daniel Baker, a scientist at the Atmospheric and Space Physics Laboratory at the University of Colorado Boulder. “That’s exactly what we’re experiencing right now.”
Solar activity, which has a cycle of about 11 years, reached its peak last year. Baker said the post-peak period typically focuses on solar flares, explosions and other more intense events. When these activities are directed toward Earth, they can create magnetic storms and disrupt the magnetosphere, the protective layer that protects Earth from harmful solar radiation.
In recent days, from Sunday to Tuesday, three coronal mass ejections were initiated by the Sun. On Tuesday, two of the planes merged and crashed into the atmosphere, raising the risk of radio interference, electrical failures and air route diversions.
Dozens of satellites in orbit were also threatened. Kelly Kahui, an engineer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), said the risks vary with altitude. Satellites in low orbit can experience abnormalities such as signal loss and restarts. Still, Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field provide some natural protection for the device, Kahui said.
At high altitudes, where Earth’s magnetic field weakens and orbits systems such as GPS and weather satellites, spacecraft are exposed to much higher doses of radiation. Under these conditions, the magnetosphere can become deformed or detached, making the satellite more susceptible to space weather.
“But that’s what they’re built for,” Kahui said. “Spacecraft in higher orbits are designed with special shields that withstand solar radiation. No one can send satellites there without this protection.”
In the past, Baker said, most satellites were “radiation hardened.” However, many commercial models currently in low Earth orbit do not have this feature, making them prone to failures and communication interruptions.
ESCAPADE mission canceled due to risk of collision and damage
Coronal mass ejections can also heat and expand Earth’s atmosphere, changing air resistance at low altitudes. In 2024, a geomagnetic storm caused some NASA satellites to fall more than 300 meters. A similar event in 2022 rendered 40 newly launched SpaceX satellites inoperable.
Many satellites operate at a fixed altitude, and performance can degrade as the altitude changes. Adjusting the orbit to compensate for atmospheric drag increases the risk of collisions with other satellites and with the millions of space debris orbiting Earth.
Commenting on the decision to postpone the ESCAPADE mission, scientist Rob Lillis, the project’s principal investigator, said on Tuesday that the launch would have taken place had solar activity stopped. But on Wednesday morning, NASA received new predictions that indicate another coronal mass ejection will occur at the time both orbiters are ejected from the rocket.
“We needed to take some important steps,” Lillis said. The radiation could damage the spacecraft’s computers and prevent its solar panels from opening. “We didn’t want to risk doing this in an even more dangerous environment.”
Baker stressed that the cancellation also avoids the risk of collisions. When geomagnetic storms occur, NASA and other space agencies lose critical tracking data that must be recovered before launch. “The likelihood of a collision increases considerably,” he explained. “And the last thing you want is to run into anything.”
Meanwhile, a satellite launch by global telecommunications company Viasat scheduled for Thursday remains confirmed for now. United Launch Alliance, which is responsible for the rocket, said in a statement that it was “closely monitoring solar activity” and that its space weather team “will reassess the situation before countdown.”
In a preliminary report released Wednesday afternoon, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center confirmed the arrival of a coronal mass ejection even more intense and faster than previous ones. The effects should last until Thursday. According to the British Geological Survey, this could be the “largest solar storm to hit Earth in more than 20 years”.
Baker compared the current impact to the 2003 series of Halloween storms that hit Earth’s magnetosphere. At that time, there were only a few hundred satellites in low orbit, but now there are thousands.
Still, space watchdogs are better prepared. “We still don’t know exactly what the sun has in store for us,” Baker says. “But as a scientific community, we hope that we can avoid the most severe consequences.”
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