In addition to weakening global efforts to combat climate change, the US boycott of COP30 in Belem has geopolitical side effects that make things even worse. Without U.S. pressure, China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, would not have to move as quickly to tackle climate change. Beijing, on the other hand, sees the US absence as a new opportunity to present itself to the world as a reliable partner, in contrast to the negativity of its rivals.
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These and other considerations were shared by two experts on energy transition and climate change with our Beijing-based correspondent. Under the previous US government, chaired by Joe Biden, Chinese authorities were more concerned about meeting expectations for emissions reductions, but that has changed with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, said Lauri Milivirta, founder of the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA).
–There is no doubt that this has eased the pressure (on China) to some extent. If you imagine a hypothetical scenario in which the U.S. sets ambitious goals for itself and pressures other countries to follow suit, it’s clear that the bar will be higher for China to demonstrate that it is an important contributor, and that’s how it wants to be seen, he explains.
President Trump also supported China in its global leadership in energy transition technologies, which has become an integral part of Beijing’s economic policy, by reversing one of Biden’s core policies and canceling billions of dollars in incentives for U.S. clean energy projects. Belinda Shepe, China analyst at CREA, said that even if the Chinese government disappoints in its emissions reduction targets announced for COP30, it could actually be offset by investment in Chinese green technology, but this seems like an irreversible path forward.
She recalled that President Xi Jinping’s pledge announced in September to reduce China’s emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035 is well below the 30% considered necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile, the analysis shows that China’s clean energy investment policies “could actually reduce emissions by as much as 30%,” Shepe said.
— There is a very clear direction for the clean energy industry to remain central to China’s development, and China’s intention to combat climate change through leadership in clean technology, she says. – China clearly positions itself as an alternative to the United States and claims to be the most responsible world power.
The pace of China’s domestic energy transition still leaves much to be desired and shows contradictions. At the same time as continuing to invest in clean energy, the country returned to building new coal-fired power plants, which remain key hubs in the energy matrix. In both cases there are economic reasons behind it. In terms of green technology, export potential will boost domestic industry. Coal is the country’s most abundant energy source and provides millions of jobs. The good news, Millyvirta says, is that the most polluting countries have stopped increasing their emissions.
— China’s CO2 emissions will remain stable for 18 months starting in early 2024 after rising sharply in recent years. Without a doubt, this is very good and promising news. This is also the first time that China’s emissions have stabilized or continued to decline without a sudden slowdown in energy demand growth. Therefore this is very important.
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As expected, the current geopolitical situation is cited in many analyzes of COP3o, and the question almost always arises as to whether there will be an opportunity for China to take a leadership role in the vacuum created by the US boycott. For Belinda, the first signs of China’s climate leadership should be measured by actions at the domestic level. At the same time, the government mainly focuses on implementation and practical results that will lead to green industry.
According to CREA estimates, the clean energy sector contributed more than 10% to China’s GDP last year. At a broader climate efficiency level, the export of these Chinese technologies to the rest of the world could reduce CO2 emissions by 1% in 2024, with trends set to become even more pronounced this year, Mylibata said. He predicts that China’s high production volumes and associated price declines make it increasingly likely that global expansion of clean energy use will become a central positive story in the fight against climate change.
—If you look at what’s happening in many parts of the world, including the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the costs of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles are dropping significantly. This is causing emissions trajectories in these countries to change much faster than expected.
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