The absence of the U.S. federal government from COP30, the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), came as no surprise to Brazil, which hosts the conference. Expressions of relief from top officials in Brazil’s presidential administration and the Brazilian negotiating delegation. In the end, President Donald Trump’s US participation in COP30 will be a major headache, an official admitted.
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The Brazilian delegation was excited by the attendance of Democratic governors and mayors, including California’s Gavin Newsom and New Mexico’s Lujan Grisham. Although local authorities cannot participate in negotiations, the fact that more than 100 US mayors and governors visited Belem was interpreted by the Brazilian delegation as a strong response to President Trump’s denialism.
This was the ideal solution for Brazil. The negotiations do not face a boycott challenge from the U.S. federal government and have clear support from a key group of U.S. local governments. President Trump’s move had no negative consequences, on the contrary, it was very successfully exploited by his Democratic opponents and Brazil. In São Paulo and Belém, no one imagined that the California governor would become so prominent in the media.
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Argentine President Javier Millay did not attend the Belem summit, but the Argentine government sent a small delegation to COP30, an official confirmed. Unlike the United States, Argentina did not abandon the Paris Agreement, which Mr. Milley threatened to do, but it never did. When it comes to multilateralism, Argentina’s president doesn’t do as much as his American admirer. Argentina withdrew from the World Health Organization (WHO) this year, but the situation is more delicate with the Paris Agreement.
For example, following President Trump’s example could jeopardize the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union that Brazil’s government and its member states hope to sign at a presidential summit in Rio on December 20. Millais is threatening not to participate in the event, but has not dropped the hammer yet. For the EU, climate issues are essential.
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In Belem, a source participating in the negotiations commented that Argentina is “a little bothered. We have a small number of people, so we can’t take part in everything, and we want to review what has already been negotiated.” But there is no sibling boycott of Amazon COP yet. The Brazilians are on guard because they know Millay can surprise.
Indeed, the Venezuelans who participated in the summit, led by Foreign Minister Ivan Gil, were, in the words of a negotiator, “quiet.” Venezuela is part of a group known as “like-minded developing countries.” Like-minded developing countries. It is a coalition formed to cooperate in negotiations and has great influence as it represents over 50% of the world’s population. This group includes countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, including China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia.
The scenario is not bad for the Brazilian presidency, but even without President Trump, it will not be easy to get a big announcement at COP30.
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