Turning left was a risky decision for Lula.

Even before Jair Bolsonaro’s son was forced to fly the flag of national sovereignty for his actions calling for sanctions against the country, Lula was already betting on a return to his “we are against them” speeches, but this time he would represent workers and the middle class, and the opposition and parliament would turn to championing tax justice that promotes the interests of the BBB, bankers, gamblers and billionaires.

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There was no time to test this risky strategy independently. Because Bolsonaro’s conviction, the tariffs, the application of the Magnitsky Act to the STF ministers, and the Chamber of Commerce’s approval of the blind PEC quickly completed an early Christmas package for Lula, and Bolsonaro knew how to take advantage of it immediately. This new view, expressed in the August-October research round, appears to have been too optimistic on the part of Planalt and the PT. Since then, Lula has pointed his arrow to the left, showing that he is confident he will rule the way he wants from now on.

After several months delay, he appointed Guilherme Boulos as Secretary-General of the President. Reforms to the personal income tax were approved, exempting those receiving up to R$5,000 and reinforcing the discourse of tax justice. He invested in measures to lower gas and energy prices and other measures to increase access to housing finance for the middle class. And in the near future, another choice by someone “local” should be to nominate Jorge Messias to the U.S. Supreme Court.

This, combined with the absolute division of the right, devastated by Bolsonaro’s beliefs and family shenanigans, seemed to form an irreversible trend for PT members to regain the lead. Even a “compatibility” with Donald Trump appeared on the horizon as confirmation of the ancient mystique of Lula’s “star.” Riding on such momentum, he not only accepted his new candidacy, but also began giving interviews claiming an early victory.

It turned out that none of these facts allowed those around the president to understand that voters tended to move to the left with Mr. Lula. On the contrary, over the years, a whole collection of studies produced by various research institutions has pointed in the opposite direction. Society is becoming increasingly conservative, leaning to the right on some issues (such as fiscal and tax issues), and has a certain aversion to the growing presence of the state and corporations such as labor unions in their lives, with particular punitive views on important issues such as public safety.

By appointing Boulos, Lula intends to get closer to independent entrepreneurs, app workers and young people on the run who don’t want to know about joining a union. In fact, the current minister did his homework to approach this unit after losing the 2024 elections and feeling the rejection of the left firsthand.

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Does he have time to build that bridge? And does the government have a platform that can respond to the aspirations of this brand new non-PT working class? The actions of the Ministry of Labor over the last three years and curiosities such as the INSS pension embezzlement scandal suggest otherwise.

The brakes on Lula’s recovery and the narrowing of his lead over his opponent show that even if the right organizes, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to re-election. This was not the case in 2022, so either the president understands that it is not the left that elects him, or he is in serious danger of throwing away the chance to fight back, which he had almost hand-in-hand, because of the opposition’s mistakes.