This article is the result of my realization of how shallow the debate in Brazil has become due to the ideological blindness in which we live. Lately, it has become common for Brazilian rebels to use Argentina’s case as an example of the way we should move forward. Occasionally, he receives messages from businessmen who are impressed by Millei’s “courage” and wonder if the poster dreams of a day when Brazil “will be ruled by a local Millei.”
Everyone has the right to think whatever they want about the government and President Lula. I myself have often criticized both the government and the president. So there is a belief that Brazil could do the same as Argentina, but it has a long way to go.
Sailors (businessmen) also need to be warned. In the seasonally adjusted period from November 2023 (just before Millei took office) to August 2025 (seasonally adjusted monthly information), Argentina’s GDP expanded by 3.3%, and Brazil’s GDP expanded by a further 5.0%.
I am aware that the example used is provocative, as we obviously know that the conditions were different and that adjustments were made there. What I want to emphasize is that the idea that countries can copy what others are doing without paying attention to situational conditions is very simplistic, and the idea that “the grass is always greener on the other side” is somewhat foolish. We need more analysis, not ideology.
It is necessary to separate the wheat from the chaff. Yes, Javier Millay has made notable fiscal adjustments in Argentina. Just like Brazil, its neighbors needed to adjust. But in reality, not a penny has been spent on large-scale investments in Argentina so far, other than investments related to the country’s clear comparative advantages in a few specific areas.
Moreover, from a balance of payments perspective, the “Argentine Miracle” has so far been based on provisional currency exchanges, whether from the capital Lanqueo, the IMF, or more recently the US Treasury. For now, no one knows how the country will fulfill its external commitments when the time comes to start disbursing the Fund’s loans in 2027.
From a fiscal point of view, the great positive lesson that Argentina leaves for our consideration, that it is crucial for the President of the Republic to support his country’s fiscal policy, is conveniently ignored here.
First, Minister Haddad’s efforts to cut spending are embarrassingly timid. Second, there are so few proposals in this area that few can survive presidential scrutiny. And thirdly, because those who survive this ordeal will eventually become victims of the heavy artillery of the PT’s digital militia.
Moreover, it is delusional to think that Brazil can adjust its GDP by 4.5%. Fine print: Mirei did this with 200% inflation and an unindexed budget. At 4% inflation, it will cost a little more.
Rather than using Millei’s example to criticize the government, Brazil’s opposition should draw lessons from the failures of the Peronist opposition, which will serve as a good lesson for Brazil. Just as Peronism spent two years calling out the creation of fantasy literature, “the greatest social disaster of the past 20 years,” but limiting itself to criticism and ghost sightings, without outlining a single proposal, our opponents are in a corner when it comes to proposals.
Opponents of Lula are unable to propose anything beyond rhetoric (“Endangering Venezuela?”, bear with me!) and intellectual laziness, such as accusations of improving PIX oversight for regulatory purposes.
Anyone who wants another alternative policy needs to burn some brain cells and outline a program with a beginning, middle, and end. Without this, the opposition will continue to suffer. Both in Argentina and here.
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