After the historic trade announcement between the United States and our country, official dollar This Friday, November 14th, it will trade at the Banco Nación Board for $1,430. In the wholesale sector, the currency is trading at $1,411. Financial Dollar sold for $1,486 (-0.1%) in cleared cash, while MEP stood at $1,462 (-0.2%). Finally, in the unofficial segment, Blue is trading at $1,435.
The use of currency swaps between Argentina and the United States has once again raised doubts among market experts about the true state of foreign exchange reserves and Argentina’s ability to fulfill its commitments without burdening currency markets. It all started on November 5th when the central bank 808 million USD It was filed with the Treasury so that it could face paying fees and interest to the International Monetary Fund without relying on the market. Two days later, dollar-denominated Treasury deposits in BCRA plummeted by about $1. USD 810 millionjust reduces to 100 million USD.
The US has confirmed that parts of the bilateral swap have already been triggered, meaning that the overall mechanism 20 billion USD—The scene has been completed. The following items appeared on the central bank’s balance sheet: 2.755 billion USD The “Other Liabilities” line displays the amount that market analysts link directly to the active section of the swap. Experts say this type of business should be recorded as short-term debt and deducted from the calculation of net reserves.
The announcement was made during a lull in the financial round due to a public holiday in the United States, but it was enough to change the market’s view of Argentina’s external position. The next publication of BCRA’s weekly balances will be crucial in determining the ultimate impact and real margin remaining for dollar stabilization.
This movement left an immediate conclusion. BCRA support to the Treasury, in addition to stimulating swaps, helped ease exchange rate pressures in the short term, but also increased the level of immediate commitments facing monetary authorities.
What was the swap used for and how much did it relieve pressure?
Partial swap activation had two main purposes. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance has been able to obtain special drawing rights for about a year. USD 796 millionThis allowed the country to pay interest to the IMF without drawing down its own foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, it provided liquidity for foreign exchange intervention for about a year. 1.9 billion USD According to private estimates, in the weeks leading up to the October 26 election,
This dual use provided oxygen at a politically and financially sensitive moment. This avoided pressure on the financial dollar and contained the potential for an increase in the exchange rate gap. But the balance sheet showed the other side. A portion of activated swaps will automatically be added as short-term debt with the United States and will be deducted from the net reserve calculation.
from Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) They explained that this type of tool improves direct photography but worsens structural measurements. The dollar comes in as an asset, but it creates an enforceable commitment that reduces the central bank’s operating margin in the face of some shock. This is why exchanges may ease tensions today but make it difficult to achieve future goals.
U.S. officials have described the move as “limited,” but exact details have not been disclosed. This lack of precision creates a common element of opacity in these operations, which the market always watches closely. Nevertheless, the swap achieved its central purpose of buying time during election season and avoiding a sudden spike in the free dollar.
Net reserves: adjusted calculations raise alarm
The situation changes dramatically when swap liabilities are incorporated. Prior to this revision, net reserves were approximately US$909 million. However, if we discount it, 2.755 billion USD If it is recorded in “Other Liabilities”, the balance will be negative, –US$1,814 million. PPI warned that this level had not been seen since April, when readings reached this level. –US$10.933 billion Before the IMF disbursements, 12 billion USD.
The central bank’s total liquidity, including special drawing rights, is 17.288 billion USDThis number does not compensate for the deterioration in the net measures that the IMF looks at to assess its ability to intervene. Recent interest and fee payments to the fund have added to the swap activity, further deepening balance sheet vulnerabilities.
The country is still waiting for the funds to be disbursed. 1.037 billion USD Scheduled for January 2026, this will provide relief but will not address fundamental imbalances. Negative net reserves, market expectations and impending obligations can increase currency sensitivity and amplify volatility due to external noise.
The current photo shows a plan that leaves little room for maneuver. Analysts agree that the next balance sheet developments will be crucial in gauging whether the central bank can avoid further outflows of financial capital.
The IMF’s goals in the most difficult moments
The triggering of the swaps and recent payments to the fund bring the reserve accumulation target to the most stringent level since the agreement was signed. According to PPI calculations, central banks will further US$9.35 billion To achieve year-end goals. others also add to it 13.55 billion USD Achieve the interim goal of mid-2026.
The challenges are quite large. The country has a limited supply of foreign currency and limited access to foreign currency. financing And demand remains strong. Achieving the goal will require a significant contribution from exports, increased external financing, or greater intervention in dollar demand.
In this scenario, the private consultant central bank It’s narrower than before. Negative net reserves, increased short-term debt, and IMF calendar pressures form a triangle that conditions exchange rate policy.
in context Where the margin of error is reducedFrom market intervention to the use of short-term financial instruments, each decision will be decisive to avoid a stronger dollar and further deterioration of balance sheets.
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