SANTIAGO, Chile – Some jokingly refer to the Germans as the “Germanic Battalion,” after their surname and straightforward, strict style. teeth three right-wing candidates People seeking to participate in the second round of the Chilean presidential election: Jose Antonio Castofrom the Republican Party (PR). Evelyn Masseyfrom the Union for Democracy and Independence (UDI). and Johannes Kaiserof the National Liberal Party (PNL).
“There is nothing funny about South American or Latin American surnames. They make people suspicious,” José Muñoz, a worker working in the sun on renovations in Plaza Baquedano, told LA NACIÓN with a laugh.
On the other side of the political spectrum, passage to the second round for Janet Hara, a member of the Communist Party (PC) and a left-wing standard-bearer who has already held a primary election, appears to be a very likely scenario, experts and surveys say. Therefore, for many analysts, this election will work out as follows: “The Great Right’s Primary”.
The last survey conducted by Plaza Publica Kadem before the ban (October 26) confirms the following findings: Jara topped the list with 30%, followed by Kast with 22%.. This was followed by Kaiser (15%), Mattei (14%) and National Party candidate Franco Parisi (12%). An unofficial survey circulating recently shows similar rates.
However, while polls show Hara as the winner in the first round, the situation changes completely in the final run-off.
“Given the fragmentation of opposition candidates, Mr. Hara has a minimum guaranteed slot to advance to the second round, and there is even a possibility that he could advance to the second round from the beginning. She has an important upper limit. All metrics show her losing, even against Kaiser, a very, very, very right-wing candidate.” said Rodrigo Arellano, vice dean of the Faculty of Government at the University of Desarrollo (UDD), in a conversation with LA NACION.
“Any of the three right-wing candidates who advance to the second round will become Chile’s next president.”Cristobal Belloglio, an academic at the School of Government at Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez (UAI), agrees.
Analysts agree that in this scenario, the shift of voters to the right will depend on a combination of factors. First of all, Jara carries a double burden. Her militancy in the Communist Party and at the same time her status as a ruling party candidate. It is no coincidence that in the final stages of the election campaign, at the same time that Hara sought to distance herself from President Gabriel Boric, she announced that she would quit militant activities in the PCs if elected.
But the most decisive point is another. Chileans’ concerns today are dominated by security and the economic situation, and in both areas right-wing candidates offer proposals that are more specific and are seen as more concrete. Stronger speech against crime.
“The situation is worse here than in Caracas,” Maximiliano Emilio, 38, a Venezuelan app driver, told LA NACION, who has already had two attempted car thefts since arriving in Santiago, but managed to stop them thanks to a remote circuit breaker.
Anxiety awareness reaches record levels. According to the 2024 National Urban Citizen Safety Survey (Enusc), 87.7% of Chileans believe that crime has increased in the last year. According to the Citizen Peace Index 2024, 32.8% of homes have been the victim of a robbery or attempted robbery in the past six months, and 27.4% say they are “very afraid.” Furthermore, according to a study by the University of San Sebastian, 76.8% of those surveyed have changed their daily habits for safety. — such as refraining from using cell phones on the street — 68.2% of those consulted admitted to this behavior.
“Don’t go out at night.” “You can’t go through there anymore.” “Be careful when walking there.” This warning has been repeated over and over again among Chileans, and even politicians are amplifying it. A few months ago, Cristian Valenzuela, Mr. Casto’s main adviser, said he could no longer go jogging due to the risk of being assaulted.
In this context, the three main right-wing candidates, whether they represent the centre-right, the conservative right or the radical right, They share a particularly tough debate on security issues.
Mattei, 72, is considered one of the most moderate figures in the field. The political successor to Sebastián Piñera, whose career has ranged from congressman to senator to minister to mayor, has also sought to win the votes of those nostalgic for the Concertacion and the centre-left. “He has tried to be attractive to the widows of the Concertación, people from the centrist and left-of-centre circles who are not willing to vote for communist candidates, which is why he has so often turned to those voters,” Belloglio explains.
However, that moderation fades when talking about security. Matei has promised to close borders and deport migrants serving time in Chilean prisons, and warned in the last presidential debate that criminals would be waiting for them if they arrived in La Moneda. “Prison or cemetery?”.
Surrounded by flag-waving supporters wearing yellow wigs and vests last night (alluding to images of the former mayor that went viral in 2019), Mattei opened his campaign closing speech by focusing on security. “The first thing we need to do is restore order. I have seen and felt the fear of Chilean families. Chileans yearn for streets and neighborhoods where they can live in peace. Without fear, without crime and drug trafficking pervading every corner. without fear of their children becoming addicted to drugs or being conscripted as soldiers for drug traffickers.” he said.
As for Kast, according to Belloglio’s explanation, until recently, clearly similar to expressions that appear in other parts of the world“What do Millais represent in Argentina, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Trump in the United States, or Vox in Spain, AfD in Germany, Le Pen in France in Europe? People basically equate Kast with that.”
But throughout the past year, as Mr. Casto campaigned for president for the third time after losing the first round in 2017 and losing the runoff to Mr. Borich in 2021, Mr. Casto made a strategic shift. “She tailored her programmatic platform and tailored her speech to reduce resistance, especially among young women,” says Belloglio. “By serving as host, Abandoning what is known in Argentina as the “Kulturkampf,” he effectively said, “I’m going to focus on security, crime, fighting illegal immigration, and the economy, and I’m going to forget about the Kulturkampf.””.
That displacement remained A hole that Kaiser quickly filled.. “The other aspect is that by forgetting about the Kultur Kampf, he somehow gave the Kaiser the most exuberant and outlandish story. “Anti-vaxxers, climate change deniers, people who want to leave the United Nations, people who talk about the 2030 Agenda, cultural Marxism…all the world Argentina knows well.”says a UAI scholar. “And at first this was considered a marginal sector and an exotic expression. But the Kaiser began to grow and eventually became a real threat to Kast, and also to Matei.”
Still, everything points to it Kast remains in the best position to advance to the runoff.. “He maintains an image of purity, of an untested figure. Neither he nor his party has ever ruled, never held the executive branch or the presidency, and I believe that works in his favor, limiting the appeal of more openly destructive options, such as the one Kaiser represents,” said Gabriel Negrete, a professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences at Universidad Carlos III in Madrid.
After security and immigration, the economy ends the stage of concern. Growth has shown some improvement this year, with GDP projected at 2.5%. Chile has suffered about a decade of stagnation: low investment, low productivity, post-burst political uncertainty, influence of organized crime on activities, weak international situation, and slow and bureaucratic state.
In this area, Mr. Casto proposes to “revitalize the economy, cut taxes, increase efficiency, and reduce fiscal debt,” while Mr. Negrete speaks in more classically neoliberal lines. This is in contrast to Jara’s proposal to raise the minimum wage to 750,000 Chilean pesos and improve pensions. Although the proposal is appealing to most voters, many believe it would be difficult to comply financially. Without parallel improvements in productivity, investment and economic growth, negative impacts could occur.
Analysts say the return of compulsory voting also explains some of the right-wing momentum. Due to forced participation, Sectors that remained on the sidelines in previous cycles are back in the spotlight.: Disillusioned voters, fed up with traditional politics and critical of the direction the government has taken following the outbreak. In a world characterized by unevenness, instability, and frustration, we find in Kast and Kaiser two people who can channel that discomfort.
Finally, even the weight of dictatorship, ever-present in Chilean politics and traditionally a factor against the right, seems to be playing a more tenuous role this time around. Although there are discussions such as Kaiser’s promise to pardon the prisoners of Punta PeucoArellano declared: “The figure of (August) Pinochet will always be there, but for electoral purposes it is true that the chasm, which was so pronounced from the presidential elections of the 1990s to the second Piñera administration, will collapse this time. It is enough to add the voting intentions of three or four candidates from the opposition, who account for about 60%, which will surpass the 44% that he already received.” “Pinochet in the 1988 referendum. So the right definitely added new voters here.”
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