in a conversation with Channel Eeconomist pablo das neves We assessed the fiscal impact of U.S. aid, government exchange rate policy, and the 2026 inflation outlook.
Market optimism and international support
Experts say:There is renewed confidence in Argentina today as political risks have been removed after the election“He explained that US support was decisive.This allowed the country to meet its obligations to the International Monetary Fund.”.
According to Das NevesThis support and the possibility of securities repurchases have significantly improved financial assets.Currently, all segments are rising, including CER bonds, inflation-adjusted bonds, SAFIJA bonds, and hard dollar bonds. the entire curve is positive“, held.
Economists compared the situation in Argentina with that in Brazil and highlighted the potential for improvement. “Brazil’s country risk is around 300 points, and Argentina still has a way to go to drop another 200 or 300 points. If all goes well, we might be able to achieve it in January.“, Project.
Similarly, he announced:With country risk close to 300 points, the government may return to the bond market and refinance January and July maturities.”, something according to it Das Neves— would give “Critical economic oxygen for the coming years”.
Exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves and inflation: challenges for governments
In relation to exchange rate policy, Das Neves I explained.The current dollar peg is 1% per month, which is not helpful for Argentina to export.“and considered necessary”Extend replacement bandHe recalled that Minister Caputo had already predicted an increase to 1.5%, adding:I would venture to say that we should follow Israel’s example in 1985 and expand a little more over time.”.
Asked about reserve accumulation targets, he cautioned:It is very difficult for the government to achieve its stated objectives“And perhaps that is.”The IMF will give him some sort of immunity, as it has done on other occasions.”.
Das Neves I thoughtTo be able to accumulate reserves, the upper exchange band must be extended at the minister’s wrist”, but acknowledged that this would have an impact on prices.A rise in the dollar will have a small impact on inflation. It’s not 100% transparent, but it will be noticed.”.
Regarding the outlook, he made the following predictions:Inflation expected to be slightly above 2% in October“, and “We Argentines have to get used to 2% monthly inflation for a few more monthsHe estimated that the annual index would rise by 2026.Approximately 23-24%, which is an average of 2% per month.”.
Regarding investments, he advised caution, stressing:CER bonds, which adjust for inflation and pay a real 7-8% plus today’s inflation, are likely to perform best.”, as long as financial stability is maintained.
Looking ahead to the next few months, Das Neves He was optimistic:”If these expectations hold, Argentina could continue to reduce country risk and return to international bond markets, something that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.” concluded.
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