German intelligence services, like those of other European countries, They have been warning about the possibility of all-out war in Europe for at least two years. They fear that if Ukraine collapses, Russia will move toward the center of the continent. This is the main reason why military spending is increasing across much of Europe, and it is also the reindustrialization opportunity that Europe’s major manufacturing engines want to exploit.
Germany is developing a 10-year plan Convert industrial capacity to essentially dual (civilian and military). If the situation worsens in Europe’s military, tanks could be leaving where rail cars depart within a few months.
It’s not about doing the same as usual, it’s about adding more public funds, it’s about prioritizing spending, and it’s not just about big defense companies. But for hundreds of small businesses. The plan, designed by engineers and economists rather than the military, begins by directing 10% of the country’s military spending to cutting-edge technology starting next year, increasing that share to 30% by 2030.
Focus will be on software, drones, anti-drone defense, and artificial intelligence and long-range capabilities to mobilize innovations that also serve civilian applications: space and hypersonic equipment. Germany will acquire hypersonic missiles, a weapon currently only prepared in Europe by France and Britain.
Germany wants to go fast. Recognizing that perfection is the enemy of possibility, the plan calls for accelerating and mobilizing production systems to improve the country’s defense, even if it makes mistakes in haste.
The basis of the plan is the Mittelstand¸ A base for small and medium-sized enterprises that are the backbone of industrial employment And we’ve been innovating in this country for decades. There are thousands of companies that have traditionally focused on serving as suppliers to large corporations.
Another major step is to focus large-scale civilian industry on military production. All of this serves two purposes. Improving Germany’s industrial capacity through coercion by public authorities And we will accelerate the process so that we can transition to military production when the time comes. In short, if the country wants it, tell Volkswagen to build armored personnel carriers in a few months the same way they build cars today.
This plan also works within the framework of the idea of European strategic autonomy. Europe knows it needs to be independent in its security And prosperity from the American security umbrella, just as we gained independence from cheap Russian energy in recent years. To achieve this, European industry, led by Germany, must increase production. Because today it is not easy for European industry to even keep up with the pace at which Ukraine burns weapons and ammunition.
The plan takes into account that Germany’s labor market is not infinite and that unemployment is almost non-existent. So one short-term solution is: Transferring employees from civilian to military industry. Rheinmetall, a major manufacturer of armored vehicles and ammunition, plans to hire 8,000 engineers in 2027, mainly from car and machine shops.
A complementary role is to dispose of surplus production through exports. Germany has always been reluctant to export arms outside Europe. As in France and the UK, however, it could put an end to this plan. The military industry needs economies of scale, but the military can’t take it all on, so it has to sell overseas. Berlin now values countries like India, Brazil and the Persian Gulf monarchies above all else. We don’t just do traditional sales. The country wants an arms exchange deal for the minerals and rare earths it needs for its economy.
Germany, like other European countries, They are taking lessons from how Ukraine can protect itself from Russian attacks. About the importance of speed in production, of being agile, and of not relegating all defense to innovation as well as large-scale weapons programs.
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