Barring a “chic rebus,” that is, unforeseen circumstances, there is no reasonable doubt that Juanma Moreno will be re-elected as Chairman of the Board next summer. The only uncertainty in the regional pre-campaign revolves around the possibility of: … Vox’s growth will likely deprive it of an absolute majority, but it will still be enough to win more seats than the left to secure office. This will be his third consecutive and almost certainly last stint as head of the Andalusian community, a historical melting pot of civilization and culture with a territory larger than Catalonia and a significant population, without any nationalist pretension.
Despite this comfortable electoral climate, Moreno Bonilla (as his opponents call him with an absurd patronymic pejorative) seems anxious. That is not because of the election results, which in the worst case scenario would not prevent him from governing alone, but because of the realization that a major failure in the breast tumor test may have taken away a significant portion of his charisma. He has taken responsibility, removed the branch councilor and ordered the dismissal of senior officials, knowing that this scandal has caused a tangible crisis in the trust in the health system, which is a key part of the community’s welfare model, where residents live in a vacuum of helplessness.
Objective management problems resulted in a loss of political capital. Moreno’s success is based above all on atmosphere, attitude and style. “Juan Mismo”. He succeeded in creating an intangible aura of moderation, coexistence, humanity, and intimacy that can produce highly effective disciplined leadership in times of tension and clashes of flags. Denounced by the radical right as a virtual social democrat, he has achieved a cross-sectional popularity that baffles and disarms socialists, but is suddenly endangered by a clinical inadvertence that was and remains unexplained. His rivals are sensing an opportunity and will have no worries. They already directly call him a murderer.
It is about destabilizing the conciliatory paradigm in order to restore spaces of understanding. And in this effort, the People’s Party is also suffering national attacks from the left and from the right. The “Andalusian way” is all about building a broad social consensus through eclectic projects, and is an obstacle to a strategy of dissent that pushes the entire country into a toxic dialectic of extremism and veto power. At issue is an opportunity to see whether the frame of mind that has been considered correct since the transition period, the belief that centrists can win elections, is correct in this scenario of political change.
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