The National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October this Wednesday, and the index has been lower than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for four consecutive months, returning to above 2% last month.
According to estimates by private analysts, the inflation index recorded a significant slowdown in May (1.5%) compared to April (2.8%) and March (3.7%), before returning to a slightly upward trajectory in June (1.6%), July and August (both 1.9%), and September (2.1%).
Thus, the indicators that the statistical agency will publish this Wednesday, November 12, will mean that the recovery to figures above 2% that occurred last month will continue, at least until the end of the year.
The Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the central bank based on private estimates, predicts that the 10-month inflation rate will be 2.2% in 2025, and that the annual inflation rate will end 2025 at 29.6%.
Inflation in Buenos Aires last month reached 2.2%, the same figure as in September. In 2025, the price change in the Buenos Aires region amounted to 25.3%, but increased by 33.6% in one year.
According to the Equilibra report, the monthly inflation rate rose to 2.1% last month, with the main increases being in alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.9%), transportation (2.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (2.5%). The interannual variation was estimated to be 31%.
EcoGo Consultores estimates that inflation reached 2.4% last month, and the average volatility in food and beverages rose to 3% and remains at this level. “Election uncertainty had little impact on prices, with relatively modest spillover effects.”
Regarding the development of food prices, he highlighted that the prices were 0.1 percentage points higher than those recorded in September, pointing out that: “During the first four weeks of the month, food inflation rose between 0.5% and 0.9% weekly as the exchange rate strengthened and the election was on the horizon.” and emphasized that “Momentum tends to slow down after the ruling party’s victory, with a 0.2% increase last week.”
The Libertad y Progreso Foundation estimated that October’s inflation rate ended at 2.4%. Therefore, the cumulative inflation rate so far this year is 24.9%, and the year-on-year rate of change is 31.4%, continuing to slow down.
From Libertad and Progreso they explained: “The month has had a relatively flat course, with a slight acceleration at the end, but no sudden spikes.” and they emphasized that “The food and beverage category was growing significantly, but slowed in the third week and accelerated again in the fourth week.”
A survey of retail prices in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area conducted by consulting firm C&T showed a monthly increase of 2% last month. “Miscellaneous goods and services was the category with the largest decline (4.5%), driven by a combination of increases in tobacco, toiletries and beauty products.”
Within this framework, they highlighted that the 12-month price change has decreased slightly from 30.3% in September to 29.3% last month.
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