The crisis that began in Santa Catarina with the withdrawal of Caroline de Toni from the senatorial race is not just a local conflict, but is affecting the political chessboard at the national level, especially on the right wing. Jair Bolsonaro (PL) may elect Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) for one of the state’s seats, while Jorginho Melo (PL) may elect Espiridian Amin (PP) as its candidate for the other seat. Pulver’s data shows that this move triggered a deeper realignment within the Bolsonarist ecosystem.
Pulver’s analysis of more than 100,000 public WhatsApp and Telegram groups revealed that Bolsonaro and his family continue to dominate the digital discourse, appearing in 36.91% of mentions related to the topic of the Santa Catarina political agreement. The distribution of other mentions shows a more fragmented field, with Tarcisio de Freitas accounting for 8.13% of mentions, followed by Nicolas Ferreira with 7.21%. These figures confirm the emergence of new political references in the debate about allies and traitors within the Bolsonarista movement.
People directly involved in the Santa Catarina Island crisis also feature prominently. Esperidiao Amin was mentioned in 2.55% of messages, and Caroline de Toni in 2.08%. This is a significant amount for a national conflict and shows that the event was rapidly nationalized. Ana Campagnolo, who became a spokesperson after expressing her dissatisfaction with the party’s choice of Carlos Bolsonaro, appeared at 1.17%, showing an increase in relevance and even becoming the target of attacks from Bolsonaro supporters on the network.
The crisis deepened as the Bolsonaro family responded publicly to criticism. Eduardo Bolsonaro released a video accusing Campagnolo of indiscipline. When allies questioned the decisions of the party leadership, the Bolsonarist ecosystem similarly responded with moralistic content aimed at asserting family authority, salvaging old posts and speeches with the aim of attacking reputations, questioning the loyalty of “rebels” and accusing them of treason.
Governor Jorginho Melo’s move towards the PP, and the consequent emptying of Carroll’s candidacy, highlighted the need for political composition in electoral disputes, as well as the difficulty of maintaining an ideological discourse. In the monitored groups, content about “betrayal,” “ungratefulness,” and “top-down intervention” rapidly emerged, spurred by video cuts, old prints, and out-of-context excerpts.
Despite the start of the riots, Pulver’s data shows that Bolsonaro and his family continue to lead the debate. However, there has been a noticeable shift towards other names such as Nicolas Ferreira and Tarcisio de Freitas, who have increased mentions alongside Guilherme Delight after appearing on the Flow podcast, reinforcing the public safety agenda. At the same time that the right is splintering, other names seem to be taking center stage in the debate, rehearsing new axes of power.
The debate in Santa Catarina is therefore not just about senate seats. It’s about who represents rights, who distributes prestige, and who has the ability to discipline the base. Discussions are already taking place about Bolsonaro’s successor, and these political movements are part of that process. The Bolsonaro family faces the challenge of maintaining party cohesion while remaining competitive in electoral politics. But the most difficult thing is to maintain a warm ideological base while forming an alliance with the central parties.
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