influence of travel Javier Millay And the delegation to the United States arrived on Saturday afternoon. Bloomberg Linea Telegraph reported that the economy minister said this in a private meeting with investors. Luis Caputoacknowledged the possibility that the rate of slide in the exchange rate band will accelerate. However, the government’s response was also delayed..
Only on Sunday afternoon, after being covered by some media outlets, a Ministry of Economy official made this assertion: infobae The version must be false. When asked if there would be any changes or announcements in the next 30 days, the same answer was given: “False.”
Bloomberg Linea noted that during the reconstitution meeting, Caputo told investors he was considering modifying the band’s rhythm. 1% still 1.5% monthly.
This version was released after Millais said in an interview with the Financial Times that the replacement band would continue until the end of his term in 2027. But it will continue to expand until it loses relevance.
“The US Treasury bailout and electoral victory enabled the government to maintain a long-ineffective exchange rate system beyond the associated costs,” said economists at consulting firm Analytica. claudius caprarulo. In any case, analysts believe that it is difficult to predict a scenario that does not include a change in current exchange rate policy, but that it is logical for the government to deny it to prevent the market from trying to get ahead of itself.
“Unlike a few months ago, the economic team now has the tools to implement a smoother transition to a plan that will allow us to accumulate foreign exchange reserves and meet our commitments,” he said.
The exchange rate regime had been the main question in the weeks leading up to the Oct. 26 parliamentary elections, after the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (BCRA) was forced to sell its foreign exchange reserves at the upper end of the band, and the US Treasury intervened midway through the band.
And although the country’s victory over Fuerza Patria (FP) by a large margin in the opinion polls has given some air to the exchange rate system in the short term, domestic and foreign economists, investment funds, and banks still have doubts about the current “floating” system.
That was the case last week Pramol DhawanPacific Investment Management Company’s head of emerging markets portfolio management advised Millay:Let’s float a coin”.
Last Friday, the sale of wholesale dollars ended. $1,415; After cutting on the same day $37 and that week $52 With bank holidays in between. What took him away from the ceiling of the band ($1,499.50) Although it’s not that big. There is only a distance of $84.5.
A version about changes in the rhythm in which the band moves occurs in situations where inflation begins to accelerate. rear 2.1% Some consulting firms estimate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September may rise. 2.4% In October.
“Beyond the recent decline, the exchange rate remains near the ceiling and is barely depreciating.” 1% monthly. As inflation approaches, 2%The ceiling gets higher every month in real terms. If this structure is maintained until 2027, as Millais says, the risk will end up with a near-fixed exchange rate approach.” they noted in the Econviews report. Miguel Quiguel.
If the rate falls and the accumulation of dollars is completed at a higher exchange rate. “It will also definitely benefit irrigation in the country,” they note in the report, making it a key variable for access to international markets in January 2026.
Seeds of doubt have also been sown over the foreign exchange reserve accumulation target that Caputo agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). BCRA has until December of this year to build the net. -$2.6 billion According to calculations by a private consultant, $7,000/$8 billion To get there. This was practically impossible, and became even more impossible after the field liquidation was driven by zero withholding measures that lasted less than three days.
February will therefore be the second time Mr. Caputo will sit before the head of an international organization. Crystalina Georgievalet them know that even though they achieved their cumulative goal, they were not able to achieve it. $2.4 billion to -$2.6 billion). The only thing it has to show is already consolidated fiscal targets and slowing inflation, which will spell trouble in the coming months.
Last Friday, BCRA’s foreign exchange reserves were $40,260 millionthen the last maturity is paid to the IMF ($825 million as interest). The government is silent on this development.
as confirmed infobaeCaputo activated part of the swap with the US to fulfill this commitment with the IMF. As well as returning to the North American Treasury Secretary; scott bessent Dollars he sold in the weeks before the election.
The Economist’s report said receipts for dollars sold by Mr. Bessent began to rise last week. Alejandro Giacoiashowed that the stock of letters issued by BCRA (which had pesos) fell sharply on October 31st, while the “other debt” item rose at the same time.
as far as he knows infobae If the source is aware of the operation, the swap activated section looks like this: 3 billion dollarsOf the total, 20 billion dollars. Official sources at the Ministry of Economy and BCRA did not respond at the time of writing this note.
But it was Bessent himself who answered questions about financial aid to Argentina for President Donald Trump’s administration, saying: “Argentina’s economic bridge will benefit Americans.”.
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