he official dollar This Monday, November 10th, it will trade at the Banco Nación Board for $1,445. In the wholesale sector, the currency is trading at $1,425. Financial Dollar sold for $1,458 (-0.1%) in cleared cash, while MEP was at $1,452 (-0.2%). Finally, in the unofficial segment, Blue is trading at $1,415.
of Post-election landscape This left us with a very different financial dashboard than we saw a few weeks ago. A clear shift towards peso-denominated assets with a realignment of asset prices, a narrowing of the exchange rate gap, and positive real returns.
At the same time, the band-based exchange rate regime coexists with market doubts about its durability, reinforcing the remonetization process that reorganizes savings and investment incentives. In that framework, “Carry Trade” The currency gains momentum as demand for the currency reconfigures, the implied rate of the peso compresses, and the expected exchange rate appears limited.
The key, however, lies in the coordination between: Ministry of Finance and BCRA liquidity management, the possibility of reserve purchases to ease targets with the IMF, and the speed of reforms that define expectations. Given potential external capital flows and fiscal policy seeking to act as an anchor, the dilemma for investors boils down to how temporary this improvement is and how sustainable it can be without friction with the dollar.
Signs of stabilization: What is changing and what is the market focused on?
From Delphos they request for money And the infusion of pesos from the Treasury has brought benefits associated with significant reductions in interest rates in local currencies and the conversion of peso assets into dollars since the election. In this framework, carry remains competitive even in a rising exchange rate scenario, justifying extended duration in favor of dual in the medium tranche and fixed rate in the long tranche. For them, the key lies in a market that remains skeptical of the permanence of the band regime, which, paradoxically, would widen the relative value of long positions in the peso.
Broker experts detailed that this move was accompanied by liquidity measures: net injections in bids, reduced use of simultaneous and temporary flexibility in reserves, factors that facilitated trading. Re-monetization. This background explains why some long-term indexed tranches have come to show advances in dollar terms that compete with contemporaneous hard dollar titles. Operational message: Carry does not depend only on the level of the rate, but on the trajectory of the rate and the management of the peso to avoid sudden exchange rate corrections.
Inviu explained: post-election rally Strong: double-digit growth in dollar-denominated sovereign debt and historic progress in ADR, narrowing of the exchange rate gap and financial exchange rates very close to official rates. They interpret this price adjustment as a response to the local risk-on environment due to increased representation of the ruling party in parliament, as well as international tailwinds (lower global interest rates and a weaker dollar) that improve financial conditions in emerging countries like Argentina.
The company’s analysts pointed out that the currency front could ease in three ways heading into 2026. One is that agriculture is expected to have more robust harvests, surplus energy balances, and foreign direct investment are likely to be reinvigorated. This situation favors the acquisition of carry in pesos when accompanied by the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. The bloc’s joint conclusion: Flow support and price realignment enable a peso strategy; dollar driver This will continue to be linked to the consistency of monetary policy and the implementation of reforms.
Band Replacement and Pre-Purchase: Dollar Hinge
For Delphos, the government seems satisfied with the issue. band structureAnd its sustainability depends on both funding signals and the development of reserves. However, the market continues to question its sustainability, and this is reflected in the MEP’s break-even point, which diverges from the current system. If the band persists, a peso-denominated strategy with a duration of more than one month will have positive returns in dollar terms, even assuming the exchange rate is at the upper end of the band. Therein lies one of the technical foundations of carry: expected returns that withstand harsh exchange rate assumptions.
From Inviu they explained: Main weaknesses of the program This was a self-imposed limit on the purchase of foreign exchange reserves, complicating its goals with the IMF and causing a hard-dollar debt adjustment episode before the election. After the election, the central bank opened the door to the purchase of foreign currency without sterilization, in order to facilitate remonetization with “external money”, according to the words of the deputy governor. This change, if implemented, would reduce pressure on the dollar and strengthen the carry framework.
In this framework, Delphos proposes two possible outcomes if: treasure Depleting the BCRA’s deposit inventory: purchasing reserves against issuance, i.e. relaxing aggregate controls, or allowing increased demand for currency to depress the exchange rate. In either case, short-term bias against the dollar appears to be manageable as long as credit confidence remains intact.
Inviu’s goal is to Reconstruction of reserves It will continue to be a hinge (with targeted adjustments with respect to the original schedule), lowering country risk towards a threshold consistent with credit resumption, and reinforcing the low-gap scenario, two conditions underpinning the peso interest rate strategy. In other words, the dollar will become less dependent on individual shocks and more on the ability to buy dollars without disturbing nominality.
Strategy in pesos: how, where and how much to risk
Delphos specialists recommend fixed rates for long sections and dual rates for medium sections. They argue that the risk-return favors fixed rates compared to bonders in the long-term portion because the implied inflation in these sections appears high compared to recent trajectories and official forecasts. At the same time, the breakeven point required for dual rates to be on par with their fixed rate counterparts still requires additional compression. wholesale rates (TAMAR), dual upside is maintained even if compression occurs.
From Inviu they emphasized: CER bond Although these offer real interest rates of 9-10% for a conservative profile, longer term fixed rate products are suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance and betting on a sustained decline in interest rates in the peso in an environment of controlled inflation and gradual remonetization. The theory is clear. Capture duration for which the macro provides additional compression.
The point of contact between both visions is Maintain term discipline: We prefer maturities greater than one month when the mismatch between market prices and band regimes provides a cushion and liquidity management avoids exchange rate surprises. This lane reduces dependence on a single macro driver with fixed rate, dual, and in the case of prudent profiles, distribution between CERs.
Sectoral nuances provided by Inviu: Within capital, energy is less sensitive to reform policies than other sectors, with associated upside. As a tactical complement, a limited selection of energy stocks can cushion portfolio volatility while carry is performed in pesos. This is not a replacement for the interest rate strategy, but it provides a balance in scenarios where legislative noise occurs.
What could go wrong (and what would the base case confirm)?
For Delphos, the market’s skepticism about the durability of belts The main “noise” What Carrie is facing. If new political or external news raises doubts again, break-even MPs could move, eroding some of the return cushion. That’s why they argue for a slightly longer period, during which the system is more likely to converge to market prices, and for a mix of dual-rate and fixed-rate allocations to cushion inflation and interest rate divergence.
From Inviu they warned that the Achilles tendon is broken do not replenish stockpiles At the pace you need. Without that anchor, country risk could slow and the rate-cutting momentum could be lost. The signal investors are looking for is that BCRA will carry out currency purchases without sterilization within the framework of orderly remonetization. This procedure verifies the base case of contained dollars and positive carry.
In a favorable scenario, the adjustment would be Ministry of Finance-BCRA Controlling the peso and adding to foreign exchange reserves, along with a tax and labor reform roadmap with legislative feasibility, will maintain the low gap, lower interest rates, and incentives to maintain term. There, additional rate compression results in a fixed rate mark-to-market, preserving the dual benefits while TAMAR converges to break-even.
On the other hand, if reserve purchases are delayed or political uncertainty rises again, the dollar could regain premium and force a tactical pause in carry. It will be an environment that shortens the period, Privileged CER Maintain liquidity with a cautious profile until exchange rate realism signals return. In other words, proactive deadline management is the most effective defense against shocks.
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