in a dialogue with Channel E, Miguel PonceThe foreign trade expert warned of the risks and opportunities of an eventual trade agreement between Argentina and the United States against a backdrop of global tensions and economic pressures.
“Nothing is more anti-free trade than tariff policy.”
The analyst recalled that the idea of bilateral agreements is not new. “A year ago they were talking about the exact same thing and even then I said it was two-faced nonsense.” he pointed out.
According to Ponce,”For Argentina, that would mean leaving Mercosur, but that would require an impossible parliamentary agreement. And from the US side, it was nonsense because President Trump’s policy is based on a trade war.”.
In a critical tone, he argued:Nothing is more anti-free trade than tariff policy.”, insisting that any treaty should be proposed by Mercosur rather than by individual countries.
The expert explained that the issue has resurfaced following comments from former senior official Antonio Aracre, who suggested that a “historic” agreement between the two countries could be announced this week. but, Ponce He asked for attention:This is not a good time to negotiate trade deals. We are subject to economic intervention and dependent on both the US Treasury and JP Morgan.‘ he warned.
Furthermore, he questioned the political opportunities of the negotiations, recalling:The Foreign Office, headed by former J.P. Morgan, just announced a visit to Washington.“, as he said,”Shows how connected we are to outside interests”.
Which sectors are likely to win and which sectors are likely to lose?
Ponce Analyzed chapters with potential for agreement and areas that could benefit. “Tariffs will be reduced in stages. Some products can be zero in 5 or 10 yearshe explained. Sectors with potential impacts include steel, aluminum, lemons, pears, apples, wine, olive oil and meat.Expanding duty-free meat quota from 20,000 tons to 80,000 tons”.
But he also warned about the partners Washington would demand.The United States plans to immediately lift restrictions on profit remittances from North American companies, as well as request preferential access to machinery, chemicals, technology and auto parts.” he elaborated.
In that sense, AmCham, Argentina’s American business chamber, has been demanding this since the current government took office, he explained.
Regarding non-tariff barriers, Ponce He emphasized that:For years, Argentine lemons were stopped by the California lobby. Let’s see if that changes.”.
Finally, he warned against making this type of move.It will inevitably be conditioned by the geopolitical struggle between China and the US” concluded.We will have to wait and see how China reacts if a trade deal favoring the United States is finally announced.”.
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