Carlos Pereira, a political scientist and professor at the Brazilian School of Public Management (FGV EBAPE), wrote in the newspaper O Estado de São Paulo that Bolsonarism has become a burden and the right wing wants freedom. Maybe it should, but it doesn’t. I’m sure you have your reasons.
For which rights is Bolsonarism a burden? For those who call themselves civilized but voted for Bolsonaro against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the first and second rounds of the 2028 elections? For some supposedly civilized right-wingers who covered their noses and voted for Lula in 2022? Bolsonaro narrowly lost re-election.
São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas (Republican) bills himself as one of the civilized right-wingers who knows how to behave elegantly at a banquet table. This also applies to many of those who defend him as the only ambitious president who can defeat Lula in 2026.
If Bolsonism and its leaders are indeed a burden, what will prevent Tarcisio from abandoning them and moving forward? The simple fact is that he doesn’t have enough votes or support to start such an adventure. He doesn’t even need to be re-elected governor. He was elected because Bolsonaro reached out to him. Still dependent on Bolsonarism.
This is the same situation faced by other right-wing presidential candidates: Romeu Zema (NOVO), governor of Minas Gerais, Ronaldo Caiado (Unian Brasil), governor of Goiás, and Ratinho Junior (PSD), governor of Paraná. Not to mention the outsiders who observe everything from a distance without showing their faces.
Political scientist Pereira believes the recent security crisis has given opposition parties new opportunities, echoing those betting on a surprise, exciting and close election. Yes, that may be true. or not. Because the security crisis has finally woken up Lula to what she had been pretending to ignore.
Lucky man, this Lula. Profited from the invasion and looting of Plaza de la Tres Poderes on January 8, 2023. There were great political benefits to be gained by raising the flag of the National Union. Bolsonarism suffered a severe blow there. Mr. Lula benefited from discovering that the military had almost taken part in the coup.
For the first time in Brazil’s history, a four-star general, a senior official, and a former president of the republic were accused of trying to abolish democracy, became defendants, and were ultimately convicted and imprisoned. Bolsonaro will soon begin serving a 27-year, three-month sentence.
Finally, Lula benefited from President Trump’s tariffs and unwarranted interference in Brazil’s affairs. His immediate reaction was to wrap himself in the national flag and defend the country’s sovereignty. The right was either silent or sided with Trump. He has paid a high price for his grave mistakes.
Equating organized crime with terrorism shows the right is once again turning to Trump for help. There seems to be no other way. Out of a total of nine presidential elections since the fall of the military dictatorship, the right has won four (1989, 1994, 1998, 2018) and lost five (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2022).
All columns of Noblat’s blog in Metropole
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