A few weeks ago a study was published in a journal science It showed that Chimpanzees can change their minds When we receive new information that shows us that we are wrong. Behaviors that bring them closer to humans…or at least that’s what the researchers claim.
Can we humans really question what we believe? Not as much as one would expect from a species that defines itself as rational. No, I’m not going to talk about politics right now – which may be the area where our beliefs limit us the most. But no one seems to be taking a step back from the Ukraine war.. On the battlefield, let alone on the slippery terrain of public opinion.
In the first months of the war, Kremlin supporters, conditioned by their chosen interpretation, insisted to anyone who would listen to them that the number of dead and wounded in Zelensky’s forces was as follows: It must have been much higher than it was under Putin.. what was your argument? In addition to their mountain-moving faith, they had one fact in their favor. From the experience of wars in the last century, most of the casualties were caused by artillery; Russia launched more projectiles every day than Ukraine. Three years later, this reasoning is still being heard, even though all analysts, including pro-Russian ones, recognize that up to 80% of casualties on both sides were caused by drones.
The same thing happens when assessing recent events in the city of Pokrovsk, which is about to fall into the hands of President Putin. Those who predicted that Russia would enter Kiev in two days, then in two months, then in two years now claim that the collapse of the city, which was an important road and rail hub before the war, is now in its defense. That would mean the beginning of the end for Ukraine.
are they right? The truth is, if you ask them, they themselves will admit it’s been many months since then. Nothing important flows through Pokrovsk.. President Zelenskiy has been forced to do away with the crossing, and as for the railways, trains can no longer even reach Kramatorsk, Ukraine’s strongest stronghold in the Donbass region.
Without Kiev, would this city be valuable to Moscow’s forces? Communication nodes are certainly important in mobile warfare. These facilitate the rapid advancement of mechanized units. Some of them were the sites of major battles of World War II. However, the same is not true in Ukraine. Under the permanent threat of drones, most of the progress on both is being made on foot and cross-country.
Pokrovsk fell, and its fall was of limited operational value; It will have moral consequences both inside and outside Ukraine, which Mr. Zelensky will have to try to mitigate. But the city has already played its part in the war, and the only strategy at Kiev’s disposal, clearly outnumbered, is to hold out, giving up space as slowly as possible in exchange for time. Time for what? The hope is that the blood of Russian soldiers and Western sanctions will weaken the will of the invaders.
How long can Ukraine hold out? How much do you need? Putin gambles on war. He will not consider the game lost and will not allow the will of the people to waver. Ho Chi Minh, the leader of Vietnam’s independence, had better cards than Zelensky because he was a dictator and faced democracy. In Ukraine the situation is quite the opposite. It is the attacked society, not the aggressor, who can demonstrate against war. And the time will come when that happens.
Under these circumstances, the precedents of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq are of little use. It’s hard to know who will last the longest. But the Ukrainian military generally does a good job. It is true that their fortresses will eventually fall, but the cities conquered by the Russians will become smaller and smaller, able to withstand enemy attacks for longer periods of time. The Pokrovsk operation began in February last year. The city has held out for 21 months so far. Before the war, the population was only 60,000.. It was more than twice as strong as the Bakhmut resistance (80,000 inhabitants, occupied in May 2023) and much more than that of Severodonetsk (100,000 inhabitants, occupied in June 2022), which the latter endured better than Mariupol (400,000 inhabitants, occupied in May 2022).
However, I don’t know that The Western response is true to what is at stake. Ukraine is the best defense we Europeans have against President Putin and what he represents: a world where there is no law but the law of the strong. Despite this reality, we negotiated support, used the supplies we had left to force him to resist the Russian army, and even handed him over in tatters. I hope you don’t regret it.
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