Government and private sector interlocutors are optimistic that the tariff cuts mentioned by President Donald Trump could include coffee from Brazil, although no countries were mentioned. Members and officials of Lula’s administration say the move is part of the White House’s efforts to curb U.S. inflation and reduce the cost of importing popular consumer products.
In an interview with Fox News, President Trump said there were “certain problems” in the U.S. economy and hinted at the possibility of lower interest rates.
— We’re doing phenomenally well, the best economy we’ve ever been in. The only thing (the only problem) is the meat. Beef is a little more expensive because (American) ranchers are doing well (with import restrictions). Coffee, we’re going to lower some tariffs, and there’s going to be some (imported) coffee coming in — President Trump said he’s going to make “fundamental” changes to tariffs, adding that U.S. prices are trending down.
Vinicius Estrella, executive director of the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA), believes Brazil could benefit if the United States approves lower coffee tariffs. This possibility was mentioned by President Donald Trump on Tuesday and highlighted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this Wednesday, who said that tariffs on coffee and fruit should be reduced in connection with a review of parts of the tariff package imposed by the current administration.
President Trump’s tariffs affected a wide range of Brazilian products and services, including coffee, orange juice, fruit, fish, and industrial machinery and equipment. The surcharges, which reach 50%, reduce the competitiveness of Brazilian exporters in one of the world’s major markets.
Despite this, Estrella believes he is in a favorable position for recovery. He said “other origins are more expensive than Brazil” and there is still room for exports to recover.
— International prices are rising, American inventories are low, and we can’t get as much coffee from other origins as we need. Brazil is prepared to respond quickly if tariff reductions are confirmed. He explains that Brazilian coffee has the quality and scale to offer the American market, but what Brazilian coffee lacks is a predictable commercial environment.
According to market estimates, by 2024 Brazilian coffee will account for one-third of total consumption in the United States. Due to the tariffs that took effect in August of this year, Brazilian coffee exports to the United States in September 2025 decreased by 53% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 333,000 bags.
The United States, the world’s largest coffee consumer, purchases approximately 24 million bags annually. Brazil will send 8.1 million bags to the American market in 2024, generating nearly US$2 billion in revenue.
While the industry looks to consolidate, Brazil’s government is seeking a broader understanding with the U.S. government. In addition to negotiating an end to the surcharge, Brazil is seeking to cancel sanctions imposed on Brazilian nationals, including Chief Justice Alexandre de Moraes, in an effort to avoid new penalties under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Code.
Section 301 is a law that allows the U.S. government to retaliate against countries that engage in “unfair or discriminatory” conduct against U.S. companies. The investigation launched against Brazil covers topics such as digital commerce, financial services, payment methods, preferential interest rates, and even the use of Pix as an instant payment method. If the accusations are confirmed, new punitive measures could be taken, increasing commercial tensions.
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