Analysis: Genial/Quaest Investigation reveals that Lula’s setbacks are greater than her opponent’s advances. policy

If the nine opponents do better in this round than they did a month ago against Lula, then clearly the news is a weakening of the incumbent, a paradoxical constant variable. This is not an apparent reinforcement of a rival. Evidence in this sense is the fact that in five of the nine cases, the decline of the ruler in the simulation was greater than the rise of his opponent, and in another three it was the same. Leyte is the only one who has made a net profit from his relationship with Lula, but the Rio Grande do Sul governor is a kind of Plan D for the PSD, betting on first Tarcisio, then Lacinho, and then the lack of a candidate. Lula defeated him 47% to 22%. He currently beats him 41% to 28%.

This match was zero sum for Lacinho, Zema and Kaiad. In the second round of simulations, they gained 4 percentage points, while Lula lost 4 points. Lacinho is the most competitive of the three, losing by 5 points (40% to 35%). For Kaiad, the pro-Lula gap is 42% to 35%, and for Zema it is 43% to 36%.

Against Tarcisio and the Bolsonaro family, Lula has lost more than he has gained. This means that the proportion of voters who are uncomfortable with this selective and arguably more polarized vote has increased. Only Bolsonaro is tied with the party leader, but it is extremely unlikely that he will participate in the election. Mr. Tarcisio has the highest competitive rate among this group, at 36% compared to the president’s 41%. It rose 3 points, while Mr. Lula fell 4 points. The board took little action regarding Michel Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro. The former first lady lost 9 points, from 44% to 35%, and Eduardo lost 10 points, from 43% to 33%.

What continues to undermine Michel and Eduardo is the fact that they are both Brazil’s most rejected presidential candidates, even more than the previous president, who was rejected by 60% of interviewees. This means that Eduardo will not receive the votes of 67% of those surveyed (1 percentage point less than in the previous poll). This percentage rises to 80% among voters who say they are independent, making them likely to be loyal in 2026. Michele is rejected by 61% of voters, and that figure rises to 70% among independents.

If Jair Bolsonaro, who is in prison, has the option of issuing a statement in 2026, keeping in mind that he will remain an election reference for the opposition, he will repeat what Lula did in 2018 and choose Michel, Eduardo, or a senator. Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ)was not included in this Quaest round. It is highly unlikely that any of the three will win today. It is a bet on radicalization to maintain a core of believers and thereby exercise a kind of hegemony over the minority. If he chooses to do so, the former president will be taking risks, as he did when Lula supported him. Fernando Haddad 7 years ago.

At that time there was a possibility that a third path of radicalization would grow, but in the end it did not materialize, but in 2026 the possibility is far from zero. The survey found that 24% of voters want a candidate who is “not Lula or Bolsonaro” and 17% want a complete outsider. If a proposal were to meet this demand, a candidate with the Bolsonaro surname could have problems winning.

If Mr. Bolsonaro’s support shifts to the governor of São Paulo, he will choose someone with a 40% rejection rate, compared to 53% for Mr. Lula. In the Bolsonaro bubble, Tarcisio is the one most likely to attract those disillusioned with Rulism. The risk that Bolsonaro takes is the risk that all creators who depend on Bolsonaro take.