Soybeans today reached a 17-month high on the Chicago Stock Exchange, the world’s reference market. Beans gained US$4.87 per tonne in January positions to end at US$421.45 per tonne. Reforestation progress in Brazil is slow, Signs of new purchases from China and Looking forward to tomorrow’s report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)to resume normal activities after a partial shutdown of the North American government. With this jump, oilseeds It exceeded the peak on November 3 last year.when he arrived $416The price hit a 16-month high as a trade agreement was signed with Japan. china and usa Resuming purchase of North American grain.
“Soybean prices have risen to their highest level in almost 1 year and 5 months on expectations for increased demand from China and the upcoming official announcement of the supply-demand balance.” conspicuous Eugenio Irazuegui Zeni market analyst. “This broke the all-time high achieved on November 3, when the January 2026 contract closed above USD 416.” he added.
Experts say new advances are Restoration of official activities in the United Statesafter a partial administrative shutdown. He recalled:After a long debate in Congress, President Donald Trump finally signed a bill reopening the executive branch and state agencies.”.
Upon this reopening, the Department of Agriculture itself reported that it would once again release important market data. “The USDA itself is expected to issue a statement and provide information on export operations in recent weeks, so there will be more accuracy regarding the completion of the sale with China.” he pointed out.
Commenting on the monthly report to be released tomorrow, Irazuegui pointed out that: Two months later, there was no official mention.the market expects downward revisions to soybean production forecasts. “Private sector consensus leans towards 116.1 million tonnes compared to 117.05 million tonnes announced in the previous survey.” he pointed out.
In that respect, Matias Amorosi,general manager AZ grouphighlighted that the market is showing stronger signs The same goes for corn as well as soybeans. “Beyond the ups and downs of the last few days, the horizon (for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 campaigns) is more stable, with prices holding both in availability and harvest positions,” he explained. He cited the following factors as supporting this better mentality: New trade agreement between the US and Chinaresuming acquisitions of Asian giants; Instant reaction to quotes. “The recent agreement has already begun to materialize with effective shipments, and China is expected to maintain purchasing volumes similar to previous campaigns,” Amorosi added.
In addition to this, US interest rate declinethe dollar depreciated and commodity prices became more favorable. merchandise. “The Federal Reserve’s 25-point cut in interest rates has created more favorable conditions for foreign buyers, who today have more purchasing power,” he explained.
The analyst also recalled that this value comes from historically low levels. “After several months of very depressed prices, this opens up the possibility of a more sustained recovery into next year,” he said.
for german iturizamarket analyst, while There are no fundamental changes that would justify such a leap.. “The USDA was already considering purchasing from China, but only a few shipments have been completed recently. There is no additional demand or inventory decline to justify these values,” he said.
According to his analysis, this rise Speculative fund activities than actual demand movements. He noted that “the fund is neutral and has seized the opportunity to take a position in soybeans after an extended period of low prices.”
Mr. Iturriza added: Grinding industry faces negative profitsit becomes difficult to maintain the current value. “China’s milling margins are negative $25 per tonne, and Argentina, Brazil and the United States are processing record volumes. These prices are unsustainable unless production in North America is significantly reduced or there are climate challenges in South America,” he said.
He also said that the Department of Agriculture would Daily sales report — after 40 days of inactivity — and Monthly supply and demand reportThis will combine October and November data. “It’s going to be a volatile day. Barring any surprises, we’ll probably see a downward correction,” he predicted.
Finally, the analyst said global financial conditions continue to influence price trends. of Rising Brazilian Real (10% in recent months) and US dollar weakness (-5% since March) created an advantageous scenario for merchandisefurther strengthened by lower interest rates in the United States. “The financial situation is accompanied by an increase, but the cash market has not yet verified it,” he concluded.
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