The Treasury Department’s Office of Economic Policy (SPE) has revised down its 2025 inflation forecast. The change in the index was from 4.8% to 4.6%, still above the target upper limit of 4.5%.
SPE said the revisions were due to the impact of higher real values in agricultural and industrial wholesale trade, lower inflation, and delays in the global oversupply of goods as a result of trade tensions.
SPE also notes that it is important to note that this estimate takes into account the yellow tariff flag on electricity prices in December, reflecting expected water shortages this year. “However, if the flag is blue, the chances of inflation being within the target range in 2025 will increase,” he assessed.
The Treasury also projects the Cumulative Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to be 3.5% in 2026, within the inflation target range (1.5% to 4.5%). The ministry expects inflation to converge to the center of the target from 2027 onwards.
The data on IPCA is part of the September macro-financial report released this Thursday (11/13).
The Macrofiscal is a bimonthly report that publishes short- and medium-term forecasts on economic activity and inflation indicators and is used in the preparation of the EU’s budget.
Sovereign Brazil Plan
According to SPE, additional tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products starting in August 2025 are already having a negative impact on Brazilian exports. From August to October, Brazil’s exports to the United States fell by about $2.5 billion (24.9%) compared to the same period last year.
However, the Secretariat says that due to diversification measures and government support, the impact of US tariffs on the export sector will be limited. “The impact of the North American tariffs was partially offset by the implementation of a series of supportive policies related to market diversification and maintenance of production capacity, job creation and export sector resilience, in addition to supporting Brazil’s external balance of payments,” he said.
The report also notes that a meeting between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and US President Donald Trump should help dialogue with the US to reduce tariffs.
More predictions for 2025 and 2026
2025
Real GDP: Cumulative 2.2% IPCA (Inflation): Cumulative 4.6% INPC: Cumulative 4.5% IGP-DI: 1.4%
2026
Real GDP: 2.4% IPCA (inflation) cumulative: 3.5%
About The Author
