since yesterday soy I will play at Chicago Stock Exchange, The global standard market position in January was US$421.45 per ton, the highest in 17 months, but today the market has changed significantly. Following the release of the report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the aforementioned position declined by USD 8.27 per tonne. Price ended at $413.18. Analysts said the decline accelerated after U.S. organizations announced new supply-demand balances for the first time in two months, but there were no signs of the deep production cuts or increased demand from China that the market had expected.
“USDA releases supply and demand balance, focusing on US campaign and anticipating possible changes in import volumes from China. “The latest numbers were bearish for prices,” he stressed. Eugenio Irazueguimarket analyst Zeni.
The restatement of estimates was particularly meaningful as the market had been without official data for almost two months due to the North American government shutdown, and that gap fueled rumors, independent forecasts, and heightened expectations. Irazuegui explained that the organization has restarted supply and demand estimates, collecting data from mid-September until a few days ago. “As the U.S. harvest enters its final stages, all eyes are on the country’s domestic production and yields.” he commented.
in Regarding production guidelines, Analysts highlighted that the USDA now forecasts 115.75 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 117.06 million tons. This reduction was not strong enough to cause a price increase.
On the other hand, it was noted that there was no change in China’s purchasing plans. “The agency has not yet taken into account the commitments in the trade agreement with the United States and did not introduce improved import forecasts from China.” said the analyst. It is worth remembering that China has promised to acquire at least 12 million tons within the next two months, according to the North American government.
In the post of X, the runner seed He said: “While the U.S. government was shut down and the USDA did not issue daily reports containing sales confirmations, China narrowly participated in the purchase of 332,000 tonnes of soybeans, with the deal completed on October 30th and November 3rd. “The market expected more…” In fact, the main bearish effect was that no further sales were reported.
For market analysts german ituriza The bearish reaction has to do with both the USDA numbers and the contrast with the previous bull market. “Expectations are very high in the market and any data that does not accompany that optimism will likely cause a correction.” he explained.
As discussed in detail, speculative funds had accumulated long positions betting on a tight supply scenario and a recovery in Chinese demand. A more neutral report automatically deflated some of that momentum.
The analyst also highlighted the role of China, as China’s silence continues to condition the market. “At this point in the cycle, the lack of clear signals from the Chinese government outweighs other factors,” he said. As he explained, the market had been waiting for some sign of a resumption of buying before the end of the year, but the lack of definition resulted in an even stronger correction.
Finally, Mr. Iturriza warned that the United States is already in the final stages of harvest and that attention will soon turn to South America. “From now on, everything that comes from the climate in Brazil and Argentina will have an immediate impact on prices.” he said.
meanwhile, Paulina Lescano “For soybeans, the USDA has reduced exports from the United States, partly due to increased competition from Brazil and partly due to competition from Japan, which is eliminating export tariffs,” the analyst said.
He added that announced sales to China were less than 340,000 tonnes, “very low for this time of year and confirms that demand from the world’s largest buyers remains subdued.” This added another element of bearish pressure on prices.
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