The path to tomorrow’s Chilean presidential election was marked by surprising swings in the polls, especially on the right, and by the consolidation of two strongmen in the first place, Janet Jara of the ruling party and José Antonio Casto of the right.
But the most striking phenomenon is the battle for third and fourth place, led by liberal Johannes Kaiser and centre-right Evelyn Mattei.
The general trend in research since the beginning of 2025 (by consultancies such as Cadem, Panel Ciudadano-UDD and Criteria) points to the crystallization of two leading candidates to advance to the second round, albeit with internal movements.
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Jara, the labor minister and the Communist Party’s official candidate, maintained some leadership, with approval ratings often exceeding 25% and, according to recent measurements, reaching 30-31%. Her support is explained by her profile as a good administrator within the government and her ability to mobilize left- and centre-left voters.
José Antonio Casto (Republican Radical Right) remains the leading candidate of the right, but his leanings are gradually declining.
He was initially expected to be the opposition’s undisputed front-runner, but his approval rating has gone from a high of nearly 30% to around 21% to 24% in the latest opinion polls. His downfall is a direct result of the rise of his competitor in the same ideological niche, the Kaiser.
rise. However, the main change in Panorama is not at the top, but in the erosion of Kast and the battle for third place, which complicates the second round scenario for the opponents. Traditional rights have been challenged by the rise of liberals.
National Liberal Party deputy Johannes Kaiser, an admirer of Javier Millei, has contributed to a sustained and accelerating rise in the polls, moving him from being a Remain candidate to vying for a strong position, moving him ahead of Mattei into third place in the latest measurements.
Kaiser represents the rise of a liberal and ultra-conservative discourse in Chile that focuses on radical deregulation, tax cuts, and a strong-arm approach to security. His popularity has been fueled by young male voters disillusioned with traditional politics, attracting voters previously leaning toward Casto and Franco Parisi.
Its rise signals the fragmentation of the right and the prioritization of security and immigration issues on its agenda. In the final poll, Kaiser’s voting intent was at about 15%.
His main influence is to become a “subtractive factor” for José Antonio Casto, making it difficult to consolidate a unified right-wing vote and forcing Casto to turn further to the extreme right in order to maintain his base.
Evelyn Mattei, the traditional right-wing candidate for mayor of Providencia, has been on the decline, surrendering her historic second and even third place.
She is using her business background and experience (former minister, former senator) to position herself as a candidate for “balance” and “moderate, responsible rights.” His approval rating has ranged from 13% to 16%. Their main challenge was to prevent the defection of voters to the more destructive options of Mr. Kast and Mr. Kaiser, while retaining moderate voters.
The final phase of the election campaign will be determined by this tense race for third place, and the inevitable second round will decide which opposition candidate has the most power to counter Hara.
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