Chile elects president in a climate of uncertainty and polarization that is almost certain to shift to the right

The weather forecast calls for a high of 30 degrees in Santiago this Sunday with cloudless skies. In addition to the documents needed to vote in Chile’s presidential and parliamentary elections, authorities recommend that people do not forget their bottled water.

While many here this Saturday in this summer climate will be rushing to do their Christmas shopping in the bazaars in the center of the capital and in the shopping malls in Santiago’s most exclusive areas, political analysts are not making any predictions. On Sunday the country Unrestricted presidential election with unprecedented voter turnout expected.

What seems certain is that when Chile’s next government takes office in March 2026, it will shift to the right.

“This is the most uncertain presidential election since the restoration of democracy,” Marco Moreno, an analyst at the Center for Democracy and Public Opinion at Chile’s Central University, told the envoy. He also makes it clear that he is skeptical about voting intention surveys, which have been repeatedly erroneous.

he compulsory votingThe regime, governing Chile’s first presidential election since the fall of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in 1990, is presenting a new scenario. In 2021, when Gabriel Boric won, about 46% of eligible voters cast their ballots. It is currently estimated that 85-90% will do so, Marta Lagos, a director and analyst at consulting firms Mori and Latino Barometro, told the envoy.

Other observers agreed, recalling that this was the average number of participants in the two constitutional referendums held in 2022 and 2023, when compulsory voting had already taken place.

Thus, in a registry of just over 15.6 million Chileans, Approximately 6 million people who had never been elected president before can now vote..

They are “forced” voters, often without strong political leanings and who may make last-minute decisions about which names to put on the ballot.

“They are a depoliticized population, they have no party loyalty, they don’t say who they’re going to vote for. They’re not very clear about the outcome,” Moreno said. clarion. Main title on the front page of a newspaper third This Saturday, Chileans pointed out that “they are even more polarized when they come to the polls, with 15% switching candidates within the last week”.

still, There is consensus on some predictions. official Janet Jarathe person most likely to take first place this Sunday is a 51-year-old lawyer who is a former labor minister in the Boric government. Opinion polls predict a vote flow of nearly 28%, with liberal-conservatives likely to follow. Jose Antonio Casto.

But of the eight presidential candidates, two other right-wing candidates appear to have potential. The problem is that unlike the centre-left, which held primaries in June to appoint a Communist Party representative, the opposition is unwilling to do so and appears to be split.

Thus, the former mayor of Providencia Evelyn MasseyThe most traditional right-wing representative and considered the “heir” of former president Sebastian Piñera, but competing for third place in the polls with the most radical and destructive forces. Johannes KaiserMany here compare him to Donald Trump and Javier Millay for his blunt, aggressive style and extremely tough speeches against crime and illegal immigration.

Regardless of how the chips are placed, the following also seems certain: No candidate will be able to reach 50% This is necessary to win the presidency in this election. Therefore, the second round will be held on December 14th.

The biggest unknown is which of these three right-wing representatives will advance to the runoff. Whoever it is, he is almost certain to beat Mr Jara. The Boric government is exhausted and its image is clearly in decline.

The former student leader was elected four years ago pledging to improve society after the unprecedented protests of 2019, but has made modest progress in boosting a devastated economy that has never fully recovered from the pandemic.

Over the past four years, no solution has been found to the deep social inequalities and lack of opportunities for the middle class that drove this outbreak. And whoever takes over next will face the challenge of finally modernizing a country that has not been able to fully shake off the legacy of Pinochet’s long dictatorship.

Moreover, despite the fact that the crime rate remains much lower than in other countries in the region, the Boric government has failed to respond to urgent demands to stop the wave of violence that is terrorizing Chileans. Today’s president is Disapproval rate is 62%and hardly noticeable in this campaign.

The rise of the right wing is partly explained by the rise in crime associated with the emergence of international drug trafficking organizations. That’s why tough speeches against illegal immigration and the security situation have become a staple of right-wing campaigns.

Who can best represent “rights”? That is the question hanging over this election. Despite the “ban” on polls that has been in place for two weeks here, a number of polls have been circulated under the table recently, showing Kaiser’s breakthrough, almost reaching Kast, but at the same time there is an atmosphere of optimism with Mattei at the helm, and a run-off is not ruled out.

For Marta Lagos, it’s “times changing” in Chile. Gone are the days when the center-left dominated the country. Except for Sebastián Piñera’s two terms, the coalition of democratic parties that has ruled since 1990 has been completely ambiguous. In this year’s center-left primaries, the most left-wing candidates within the disparate ruling coalition won, while the most centrists suffered a disadvantage.

and The right side is also running towards the limit.. All three of Jara’s rivals have defended Pinochet’s government in some way, but Kaiser has been the most forceful defender. “Chile intends to elect a candidate who positively evaluates the former dictator. Even Mr. Matei made the mistake of moving closer to the far right in order to compete,” Lagos added.

In addition to Hara, Kast, Kaiser and Mattei, economist Franco Parisi (right-wing populist), former deputy Marco Henriques-Ominami (left), former soccer coach Harold Mayne-Nichols (liberal) and professor Eduardo Artes (far-left) also compete, but there was virtually no choice.

voters 155 members must also be elected. Who will make up the House of Representatives for the next four years? 23 out of 50 senators Over 8 terms.