Madrid, November 15 (Europe Press) –
Ecuadorians will go to the polls this Sunday to vote in a referendum and national consultation promoted by President Daniel Novoa. The national consultation aims to amend the Latin American country’s political and constitutional framework in order to gain greater means of governance, including the return of foreign military bases to the territory, against the backdrop of a deteriorating security situation that has made Ecuador the most violent country in the region.
Voters – About 14 million people (over 18 and under 65) in 24 states with mandatory voting are registered on the electoral rolls, and four questions (three referendums and one popular consultation) can be found on the ballot. If a proposal is approved in this way, the decision is binding and becomes an obligation for the state.
The “Yes” campaign is led by President Daniel Novoa’s ruling party, Action for Democracy (ADN), but the main opposition forces, the Colesta Citizen Revolution (RC) and the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Ecuador (Conaie), along with social organizations and trade unions, have rejected the proposal.
Although the president is “optimistic” about the likely outcome of the electoral process, Colaismo accused Novoa of spending millions of dollars on phone calls that he described as “distracting” and not producing solutions. He also defended the current constitution as “guaranteeing” and “creating” the rule of law in favor of minorities, and claimed that the government intends to privatize education and health care.
The vote came amid an unprecedented escalation in violence in Ecuador due to drug trafficking and the advance of criminal gangs. Due to the declaration of internal armed conflict and the consequent state of emergency in large parts of the territory, the designation of criminal organizations as terrorist groups was not enough to reduce the murder rate.
Joint military and police operations, a mainstay of the crackdown campaign, had only fleeting success in 2024, but rising murders mean 2025 will be the most violent year on record, affecting civilians caught between violent groups fighting for control of territory.
military base
The first question, identified as Box A, asks: “Do you agree to partially amend the Constitution in accordance with the annex to the question to eliminate the prohibition on the establishment of foreign military bases or foreign facilities for military purposes and on the transfer of national military bases to foreign military or security forces?”
The annex states that while “it is the primary duty of the state to guarantee its population the right to live in a culture of peace, comprehensive security and a democratic society free from corruption”, the security situation “needs the adoption of different strategies against the different modus operandi of organized crime”.
This means sending foreign troops into Ecuadorian territory with the stated purpose of fighting crime, but opponents of the measure charge that it violates the country’s sovereignty, prioritizes foreign interests, and does not address the structural causes of violence. In particular, the Ecuadorian government has confirmed that the United States plans to establish two bases in its territory, in Manta and Salinas (in the west), and that it will also hold talks with Brazil for cooperation in the security field.
In fact, in recent weeks, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem visited the Latin American country and toured both countries with Noboa. Manta had already been home to a US military base, a forward operating base for the Southern Command, for 10 years from 1999 to 2009, at which point Ecuadorian authorities had full control of the military installations on the Pacific coast.
Foreign military bases were outlawed in 2008 by order of President Rafael Correa, but Ecuador has once again become one of Washington’s key allies in the region. Experts note that the U.S. presence at the time in connection with allegations of human rights violations did not lead to any decisive results in terms of drug seizures.
Political field: Finances and reductions in parliamentary representation
The second question asks, “Do you agree to partially amend the Constitution in accordance with the annex to the question, eliminating the state’s obligation to allocate resources to political organizations from the state’s general budget?”, noting that it must be funded by contributions from members of parliament and their sympathizers.
The third question asks whether voters “agree that the number of members of parliament be reduced and that they be elected according to the following criteria.” That is, 10 members of Congress, one representative from each state, and one additional state representative for every 400,000 residents according to the last census.
In practice, the removal of funding during non-election periods would primarily affect smaller parties. Smaller parties rely on these funds to continue operating outside these periods, thus facilitating the narrowing of the political spectrum. On the other hand, reducing the number of members would concentrate political power and limit the majority’s voice in the legislature.
Should we rewrite the constitution?
The fourth and final question is: “Do you agree that a Constituent Assembly, whose representatives will be elected by the Ecuadorian people, be convened and established to create a new Republic Constitution, which will only come into force if it is subsequently approved by the Ecuadorian people in a referendum?”
Convening a Constituent Assembly is the first step in rewriting the 2008 Constitution. If a majority of Ecuadorians agree, the National Electoral Council (CNE) will have to organize a second appointment at the polling stations, and the voters themselves will have to choose the person in charge of drafting the new constitution. Once the new document is complete, the public will have to vote a third time, this time to decide whether to approve the proposal.
If the result is positive, it will be interpreted as a referendum, as it will be interpreted as supporting Noboa’s management. In fact, it can also be understood as a poll on the former president, seeking to undo some of the policies inherited from Correa, such as the ban on foreign troops and the current Magna Carta.
This appointment at the polling station is the 15th process of direct democracy at the national level since 1978, with eight presidents having used these mechanisms. The president who made the most calls was former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017), who made four calls. This is Noboa’s second consultation since taking power, and the first since April 2024, when he asked 11 questions on security and institutional reform and received “yes” on nine of them.
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