If the conditions are met, São Paulo state governor Tarcisio de Freitas (Republican) will run for president of the republic next year:
1. Bolsonaro’s unequivocal support.
2. The equally unequivocal support of Bolsonaro’s four sons (Senator Flavio, City Councilor Carlos Rio, Customs Ambassador Eduardo Donald Trump, and City Councilor Jair Renan Camboriu) and former First Lady Michelle.
3. Supporting current ambitious right-wing candidates: Ronaldo Caiado (Unian Brasil), Governor of Goiás. Romeu Zema (new), Governor of Minas Gerais. Mr. Lacinho Junior (PSD, Governor of Paraná), Mr. Eduardo Leite (PSD), Governor of Rio Grande do Sul.
4. Economic and other significant shocks significantly reduce Lula’s chances of being re-elected. For example, corruption scandals. It was a prisoner revolt that resulted in many deaths.
Tarcisio would need to announce support for Bolsonaro and his family by January or February to give him time to make a clear statement about his successor. The presidential candidate will be forced to resign as governor by the first few days of April.
For now, Mr. Tarcisio, guided by his political advisers, continues to deny that he is seeking to succeed Mr. Lula, but he smiles every time he hears it mentioned in public.
That doesn’t mean getting rid of what he fears most. If a candidate is on the campaign trail and Bolsonaro or one of his children says something that calls into question the family’s support for him.
Eduardo and Carlos do not fully trust Tarcisio, legitimately claiming that Tarcisio does not have the votes to be elected president and that the Bolsonaro family does.
So even if they lose, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for one of them, perhaps Flavio, to run for president.
All columns of Noblat’s blog in Metropole
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