QUITO — In Ecuador’s political circles, an old saying is being used to explain the call for a referendum, just six months after it was held. Daniel Novoa accepted a new mission: I can’t sew without thread. The president is gambling that he won’t get a blowout this Sunday, but while opinion polls show his supporters have a certain advantage, it’s not conclusive.
The president remained steadfast in his fight against indigenous movements during weeks of strikes in the Andean region. He defines himself as a moderate social democrat; But has good relations with the government donald trump and employs several strategies to combat crime in El Salvador Naive Boucle.
In fact, of the four questions in the talks, the most contentious a priori concerns the return of foreign bases to Ecuadorian territory, a prohibition introduced by then-President Rafael Correa in Magna Carta and the closure of the Manta base. over the years expansion of drug trafficking; Experts and opposition leaders accused the civil revolution of facilitating organized crime activity along with the removal of bases.
Led by US Secretary of Security Kristi Noem, Novoa visited potential sites for new bases. This initiative, together with the agreement reached on tariffs, This is similar to what Trump did before Argentina’s parliamentary elections. A political movement to give allies an advantage over the left.
Under these circumstances, Ecuador will vote again this Sunday to decide, among other things: If you want to start the process of changing the current constitution or say no to Novoa’s plans, They seem more comfortable with elections than with government action. Of the four questions to which 13 million people were summoned, the questions to answer were: constituent assemblynew consultations will be needed in the near future.
According to the roadmap drawn up by Novoa, a National Assembly with a pro-government majority will coexist with a new Constituent Assembly without full powers. After the election, 80 delegates voted to. The possibility of a failure similar to Chile’s is rife, as these elected officials draft the document and require approval by two-thirds of voters. It then needs to be ratified by voters.
“There are two reasons why the President has included Constituent Assembly questions in the national consultation. To eliminate constitutional restrictions, It has been very distasteful to him since the Constitutional Court’s judgment on presidential decisions and other laws of government courts. In reality, these laws were only formal opinions because they were poorly presented, even though we knew in advance that the courts would react negatively to them,” political analyst Matthias Abbado told LA NACION.
Abbado’s second argument is descriptive. “The president has diverted the nation’s attention elsewhere. When there was already talk that 2025 would be the year of the most violent deaths in Ecuador’s history, Murder cases increased by 30% from the previous year. There are structural health issues as well, and we feel them on a daily basis, such as drug shortages and doctor shortages. Less money remains in households, public services operate less efficiently, and taxes rise. Through the Constituent Assembly, the president establishes the idea that a constitution is necessary to improve the country. ”
Thus, the polarization between the new government and Correa’s citizen revolution resurfaced. “Noboa is going to win. The deal with Washington will help.” Political scientist John Polga-Hecimowicz, associate professor of political science at the U.S. Naval Academy, predicted:
“After all, what Novoa aims to do is, first and foremost, to legitimize the government through voting. fundamental changes in the government model; But in the end it will be similar to the previous one, but with its own rules. It’s a kind of Gatopardism. We change everything so that everything stays the same,” Michel Levy, coordinator of the Andean International Research Center, told LA NACION.
The remaining two issues in the referendum would, according to research and common sense, have already been decided. In one of them he asks: Reduction in the number of members of parliament And on the other hand, about funding political parties By the nation.
As a rule, the cards appear to be marked for Novoa, decline in his popularity In both Quito and Sierra, regions that were very strong in the election campaign.
“What helps the government is to keep the president involved in the election campaign. He is much better at campaigning than he is at governing in any practical political sense. It works well in that respect, but there are risks as well. “Even if the president does well, each election process creates uncertainty that could push back investment and delay outstanding efforts for the next year and a half,” Abbado said.
Novoa unexpectedly won the 2023 election, but the country was shocked by the assassination. Fernando Villavicencio And this year, thanks to his leadership as head of government, he knew how to contain the final onslaught of the Colesta opposition.
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