first round. Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in Chile on November 16 of this year, with the entire House of Representatives (155) and half of the Senate (25 out of 50 seats) up for election. Regarding the presidential election, it is very likely, virtually certain, that no candidate will receive the necessary support (50% plus one vote) to be directly elected president for the period 2026-2030 this Sunday. Therefore, the second round is scheduled for December 14 next year.
There are really only four options. There are eight candidates on the ballot, but only four are actually available. From left to right: Janet Jara (communist extremist, the only candidate of President Gabriel Boric’s ruling party), Evelyn Massey (UDI, traditional right-wing candidate grouped with Chile Vamos and candidate of the centrist Amarillos and Democratic Party), José Antonio Casto (republican leader, conservative far-right), Johannes Kaiser (Nationalist Libertarian Party, far-right). One thing that is unclear is the position reached by populist candidate Franco Parisi, who according to opinion polls would be fifth in his third attempt at La Moneda, with around 10% of the vote. If he were to defeat one of the right-wing candidates and come in fourth place, it would be surprising and good news for his People’s Party.
Who will vote? At least in the polls before the publication ban began on Nov. 1, Mr. Jara was in first place and Mr. Kast in second place, with both candidates advancing to the second round within a month. So it would be surprising if this scenario didn’t happen Sunday night. Can Kaiser beat Cast? According to Election Radar, the polling average is just four points lower, so it seems unlikely, although we can’t completely rule it out. Either way, it’s an open scenario. And can Kast beat Jara to become number one? Nothing is impossible in politics, but this scenario is also unlikely, given that Mr. Jara is supported by a large part of the Chilean left and at least by supporters of President Boric (a total of about 30% stable).
The relative importance of arriving first. Although winning the first majority is important, this fact has no necessary correlation with the second round. All this suggests that Hara will have the highest approval rating in this year’s vote on the 16th, but that does not mean that Hara is likely to defeat Kast in the runoff, at least according to the poll results before the ban. This Sunday, there is expected to be a distance of 5 to 9 points between Hara and Kast, i.e. between 1st and 2nd place, so anything outside this range will be considered shocking.
If Kast doesn’t pass. The unlikely scenario is that Mr. Kast does not go to a runoff and the liberal Mr. Kaiser advances, but given the second round, a transfer of votes from the right is not entirely guaranteed. In other words, not everyone on the right will vote for Kaiser. For Hara, this appears to be the best-case scenario. The election on December 14th will put Liberals in charge of government instead of Republicans. But still, Harrah will not prevail against Kaiser, at least according to the polls.
Battle for 3rd and 4th place. The battle for 3rd and 4th place continues. Until a few weeks ago, it seemed certain that Mattei would come in third place, but the fact that Kaiser’s support began to rise in opinion polls before November 1 cast doubt on this picture. If Kaiser instead of Mattei were to remain in third place, it would be a major blow to the traditionally right-wing Chile Vamos. Needless to say, Matei finished 5th and was overtaken by Parisi. Does she have the option to go to the runoff? Her supporters, who are calling for a moderate last-minute vote that does not lean toward communist extremists or ultras such as Kast, are few in number.
Second round. There are no opinion polls showing that Mr. Jara won against the right-wing candidate in the second round. The open question is whether this scenario can be reversed in the four weeks to December 14th. The left itself admits that this task is extremely complex.
Parliament. The most important will be the parliamentary elections. Mr. Anholster predicts that the right will reach a majority in both the House of Representatives (85 out of 155) and the Senate (26 out of 50), something that has not happened in this country for the past 20 years. According to the analysis, the main increase is a deal between Mr. Casto’s Republicans and Kaiser’s Liberals that would increase the number of House members from 15 to 29 and the Senate from zero to two in 2017, when the same districts were drawn as they are now. On the other hand, a report by Larraín Vial, a firm specializing in financial advice, guarantees that “if the right wing had united in the parliamentary elections (…) it would have won 90 out of 155 members of the National Assembly and 28 or 29 out of 50 senators. In other words, it would have obtained the four-sevenths quorum needed to change the constitution in the House of Commons and the Senate.”
Stake. Total registration reaches 15.7 million voters. As in recent elections, the Leave referendum leading to the two constitutional processes and the 2024 local elections, turnout this time too is estimated to be 85%, or around 13 million people out of 15.7 actually voting. This is therefore 5 million more people than the 2021 election participants, but about 8 million people went to vote in the election, a participation rate of about 50%.
About The Author
