The moment of truth seems to be getting closer every moment. Donald Trump said he already knows “more or less” the purpose of a large U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean in Venezuela, after a week of multiple rounds of talks, in Trump’s words. air force one. Meanwhile, in Latin America and other parts of the world, mystery continues over a decision that could trigger a severe geopolitical earthquake in a continent that is more polarized than ever.
It is not clear what President Trump is proposing in this area. Representatives of the administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, maintain that the operation, which has attacked more than a dozen suspected drug vessels and killed at least 80 people in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean in recent months, is simply a counter-drug operation. But while weakening naval power over the Venezuelan coast, unheard of in the region for decades, the president himself spoke publicly about “phases” of the operation that would include targets on the ground.
The mystery is what this new phase is intended to be. Will it be limited to the extent that it goes against the interests of drug lords, or will it be an outright attempt to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power, as he himself and many in Washington have denounced? The U.S. government has accused the regime and Mr. Maduro of subsisting on drug-trafficking proceeds, and, like other governments around the world, does not consider Mr. Maduro the country’s legitimate leader.
“We know this operation is about regime change, but even if it’s not, it’s becoming very political,” said Daniel Elkins, a delegate with the Special Opera Society.
bellicose escalation
In a rhetorical and warmongering escalation in which the United States positions itself as the world’s largest and newest aircraft carrier; gerald fordand with Venezuela mobilizing 200,000 soldiers to counter a hypothetical invasion, Trump and Maduro appear locked in a personal duel that they will likely lose in the first match.
“We keep saying the United States runs on drugs. That’s the official position. So we could announce in February that we’re shipping fewer drugs and therefore we’re making money. But that’s false,” Elliott Abrams, President Trump’s former special envoy to Venezuela, argued in a paper chara this week. think tank Atlantic Council. “If Nicolás Maduro remains in power at the end of all this, he will win. He just needs to survive. And I hope (Trump) realizes that it’s too late to go back. Does he want Trump or does he want Maduro? The pulse is in gear.” It will be the second time Venezuelans sing victory over President Trump. The party attempted a pro-Chávez march in support of Juan Guaidó in 2019, but the experience — little inflicted, yet humiliated — still lingers.
The incident intensified upon arrival in the area. gerald ford He, who played a fundamental role in the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear targets last June, will join a 12-boat platoon battle group that the U.S. has been deploying in Caribbean international waters on the border with Venezuelan waters since August. Only 20% of the U.S. Navy is mobilized around the world, including 15,000 soldiers, the latest F-35 fighter jets, helicopters, and long-range missiles. tomahawk He says he denies it because who covets Ukraine and President Trump needs it too.
Señales
its home base gerald ford That was the first sign that some move might be imminent. The crown jewels of American marinas are never left in the same location for long periods of time to perform simple surveillance missions (the first argument put forward by the Pentagon to justify their relocation from the Near East). Its spending reaches up to $8.4 million (€7.2 million) every day, and its persuasion is also needed in many other hotspots around the globe in which the United States has interests. “The Armada can’t stay there forever,” Abrams said.
The second signal was generated in July of this year. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on social networks the start of a large-scale operation South Lanza (southern spear), to “eliminate narco-terrorists”.
President Trump did not make a decision immediately. On the one hand, a president who presents himself to the world as a great peacemaker and claims the Nobel Peace Prize without subtlety, needs a legal justification for his intervention. But they worry that failure could bring disgrace and put the U.S. military at greater risk. After all, he promised during his campaign never to intervene again in what he called a “stupid war” under U.S. command, and his electoral base also demanded it.
refusal of the people
The public rejects the idea of intervention. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month found that 51% of Americans reject deadly attacks on drug boats, while 29% approve. Thirty-five percent condemn the use of military force in Venezuela without permission from the country’s authorities, and 31% support forcing Maduro out by non-military means. Only 21% supported a coup against the Chavismo leader.
The options President Trump is planning to achieve his goals within Venezuela are wide-ranging. This could take the form of direct attacks from ships or rely on surgical operations from special operations groups. Attack the interests of drug trafficking cartels or pursue military objectives. He is a member of Maduro’s inner circle.
The deployment to the Caribbean is not the only US military action in the region. The Pentagon has increased personnel at its base in Puerto Rico. Under pressure from attacks on suspected drug ships, training flights of B-52 and B-1 bombers were assembled near the Venezuelan coast, and President Trump authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela.
The Pentagon also sent ground forces to Panama, which Trump invaded in 1989 to overthrow the government of President Manuel Noriega and had threatened to intervene before taking the oath of office to regain control of the crucial strait that connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. And it announced extensive exercises in Trinidad and Tobago, also near the Venezuelan coast.
“Since then, this has been a pressure operation,” declares retired Gen. Laura Richardson, who last year served as commander of Southern Command and is responsible for U.S. military operations in Latin America.
The U.S. government says the operation is set to be a long one. And this forms part of a shift in foreign policy and defense to reduce interest in Europe and Asia and then focus on Siglo and media. monroe doctrinefrom New in the Americas.
EE UU neighborhood
“The Western Hemisphere is the governor of the United States, and we will protect it,” Hegseth wrote in announcing Operation Southern Lanza. His department is preparing to publish a new National Security Strategy, a catalog of priorities to prepare for each incoming administration, focused on protecting Latin America and the homeland.
In previous months, President Trump had made clear his interest in the continent, threatening to intervene in Panama to regain control of the canal and demanding that the United States break with Greenland.
Republicans remain focused on events in Latin America, praising him for the changes ahead in countries in the region that could continue to push for governments along Trumpist lines. “Marco says that more and more countries in the region are on our side,” he complimented at a cabinet meeting in August. And he does not hesitate to support them openly, as he did when Javier Millay visited the White House in October and was conditioned to help Argentina help the president win the recent election on the 26th.
On the contrary, the operation to eliminate Narcolancha has strained relations between the United States, Colombia, and President Gustavo Petro, whom Trump has called a “murderer” and “drug trafficker” and has imposed economic sanctions on. Meanwhile, Colombia’s president described the attack on the boat as an “extrajudicial execution,” a term also used by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. This week, Bogota followed the example of Washington’s biggest historic ally, the United Kingdom, and announced a suspension of U.S. intelligence cooperation for this reason. Britain also became the world’s first major power to partially cancel this kind of cooperation.
The Trump administration has made no secret of its desire to improve its reputation in this country. “By the grace of God, elections will be held in Colombia this year. The Pueblo of Colombia, in its great wisdom, will reject this path that leads to misery and hatred and will move in a new direction towards the better half of this great pueblo,” declared Christopher Landau, the State Department’s number one, during the monthly memorial to Cuban dissident José Daniel Ferrer in Washington.
Elkins said it’s impossible to plan what steps Trump will take between 2021 and 2025, because “we have to take into account that Trump is in his third term, not his second term.” “What we are doing is a very sophisticated, very calculated and coordinated effort to ensure dominance in the (western) hemisphere,” says the expert.
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