Exchange rate appreciation in coming months
BCRA’s new market expectations study incorporates the latest official dollar forecasts through early 2026. The study, prepared with the participation of 42 consulting firms and financial institutions, presents a scenario of limited activity towards the end of the year and a moderate trend in the first few months of next year.
Expert consensus is that the wholesale exchange rate in December is estimated to be around $1,500, with a year-on-year change of 47% compared to the end of 2024. According to the report, this level is part of the current band system, the cap of which will be adjusted at a monthly rate of 1%.
The report predicts that the official dollar will rise to $1,525 from January 2026. It will reach $1,553 in February, rise to $1,575 in March, and reach $1,582 in April. According to predictions, within a year the price will be closer to $1,679. These estimates suggest a slower pace of depreciation than recorded in previous cycles.
The role of the current exchange rate system
This survey also reflects expectations for the continuity of the band system. The limit is currently set at $1,499.50 and will be updated over time. The mechanism, which the government plans to keep in place until at least the 2027 presidential election, is intended to ease currency volatility and provide a signal of predictability to markets.
In line with these definitions, the executive branch precludes sudden policy changes for now. The authorities emphasize that the band’s monthly expansion program will continue for the next few years, with the aim of gradually reducing the band’s relevance.
Recent market trends
Since the parliamentary elections, the price of the official dollar has shown unusual stability compared to previous cycles. Downward trends in country risk and improving macroeconomic expectations have contributed to strengthening this dynamic. In this scenario, BCRA argues that there are no fundamentals to expect an abnormal correction in the short term.
Inflation: What the market expects in 2025 and 2026
REM also provides up-to-date information on price trends, an important indicator for assessing the consistency of economic programs. Analysts expect monthly inflation to be close to 2% in the final months of 2025.
The report predicts a monthly record of 2% in December, following an estimated 2.2% in October and a similar level in November. This brings the cumulative inflation rate for all of 2025 to 29.6%, representing a significant slowdown compared to previous cycles.
Expected inflation path in 2026
The consulting firm predicts that the downward trend will continue in the first months of next year. Monthly inflation is expected to be around 1.8% in January 2026, falling to 1.7% in February. It is expected to return to 1.8% in March, but fall to 1.6% in April.
Core CPI, which excludes seasonal fluctuations and regulations, is estimated to have increased by 2.1% in October. Over the coming months, forecasts show that overall inflation will remain near 2% through December, before beginning a gradual decline that will continue through the first four months of 2026.
Economic activity, employment, external accounts
REM also analyzed complementary variables to understand the expected macroeconomic outlook. In terms of activity, seasonally adjusted gross domestic product will decline by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter. A recovery of 0.3% is expected for the last quarter, and growth of 1% is expected for the same period in 2026.
On an annual basis, GDP expansion in 2025 will reach 3.9% compared to 2024. According to the consultants, this performance is associated with increased investment, a partial reorganization of consumption and an improvement in the external balance.
Labor market and tax situation
The expected unemployment rate for the third quarter of 2025 is 7.5% of the economically active population. For the fourth quarter, it is expected to be around 7.2%, with modest improvement in activity.
Regarding foreign trade, exports of goods are expected to reach $84.732 billion and imports $76.445 billion in 2025. This is expected to result in an annual trade surplus of US$8.287 billion.
On the fiscal front, the current fiscal year is expected to end with a primary surplus of $13.2 billion, reflecting the continuing adjustment process within the government’s agreed programs.
Elements that attract the most attention among analysts
While the REM points to slower inflation and moderation of the exchange rate, experts warn that the key in 2026 will be consistency between fiscal policy, band management and the evolution of activity levels. This balance will determine whether the current forecast is sustainable or whether it will need to be adjusted in the coming months.
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