Chile, a reference point for stability and development in the region, is a country in turmoil as it votes to choose the next occupant of La Moneda Palace this Sunday (16th). While neighboring countries elected their latest president seeking economic solutions, Chileans experienced an election campaign centered on rising crime and an increase in illegal immigration.
The favorites in this debate are Janet Jara, a former labor minister under President Gabriel Boric, a Communist Party official and lawyer, and José Antonio Casto, a far-right lawyer and Republican leader who defends dictator Augusto Pinochet.
The former minister, 51, promises to increase the number of police officers and conduct a census of foreigners, while Casto, 59, talks about building a wall and sending soldiers to the border to stop immigrants from entering the country. They also advocate tougher punishments for crimes.
Throughout his campaign, Mr. Casto linked the arrival of foreigners to the strengthening of drug trafficking cartels operating within Chilean territory and proposed deportation plans.
Over the past 25 years, the number of foreign residency applications in Chile has increased 11 times, reaching 136,800 last year. According to data from the Chilean Immigration Department, due to Chile’s severe economic and political crisis, most applicants during this period were Venezuelans (30%), followed by Peruvians (19%), Colombians, and Haitians (12% each).
Rising violence in a country where murders have tripled in the past decade is prompting citizens to seek greater security. Chileans say they fear kidnapping and robbery despite living in one of the safest places in the region.
According to the National Institute of Statistics, the number of police incidents of all types recorded in the country last year was 1.3 million, the highest level in a decade. Furthermore, 9 out of 10 Chileans say they believe crime is on the rise, with more than 261,000 people arrested in 2024.
According to Mauro Basaure, a sociologist and professor at Andres Bello University, Chilean society is facing a change in the types of crimes (more lethal murders, kidnappings with extortion, overt violence typical of organized crime) and the spectacle of these events, which goes beyond statistics and creates a perception that is a form of collective anxiety.
“Crime levels in Chile are relatively benign, but the type of violence is extraordinarily shocking. It would be a mistake to deny these aspects. The objective reality of crime is changing, and this change is reinforcing subjective regimes of fear, reshaping politics, changing public priorities, and creating a governance based on fear.”
Security concerns have proven more pressing among voters than historic demands for social reforms that would expand access to universal rights, free health care, and education, as evidenced by the rejection of a new constitution proposed by Bolić two years ago.
If the trends shown in the polls are confirmed and no candidate receives 50% of the vote, Mr. Jara and Mr. Casto, who is seeking his third presidential bid, will face off again in a second round on December 14.
Opinion polls suggest that Hara could lead in the first round, but analysts believe Kast could win in the second round if the votes of two other right-wing candidates, fellow radical Johannes Kaiser (National Liberal Party) and traditional right-wing representative Evelyn Mattei (UDI), are combined.
Since the end of June, Jara has led with 32.5%, compared to Kast’s 23.5% and Matthei’s 15.9%, according to aggregate survey data compiled by Celag Data. In the first weeks of November, Jara had 28.2%, Kast 21.5% and Mattei 13.5%, according to average polls. Some studies show Kaiser in third place behind Mattei.
Franco Parisi (Popular Party) and independents Marco Enriquez-Ominami, Eduardo Artes and Harold Mayne-Nichols are also running.
This Sunday’s decision could mark a major shift in Chile’s political landscape, especially with the rise of the far right in recent years, which is seen as part of a global phenomenon.
Under state regulations, Borich could not seek a new consecutive term. The former student leader, who generated enthusiasm when he took office, will leave the government with an approval rating of around 30%.
The next president will inherit a fragmented legacy from Mr. Bolić, said Mr. Basaule, who assesses his ability to manage effectively and the hopes for change generated by his election.
“Although some concrete progress has been achieved, such as the minimum wage, the 40-hour work week, and social assistance policies, these milestones lack strategic depth, given the failure of structural reforms and, above all, the collapse of the constitutional reform project.”
“Instead of consolidating progressive horizons, Mr. Borich left behind a worn-out, defensive left with no transformative credibility while the nation leans toward radical solutions. If the next president comes from the far right, it will not be a coincidence, but rather the culmination of a cycle that this government has ushered in through its actions and inactions.”
Approximately 15.6 million voters are eligible to vote, and attendance is compulsory in the country, with fines for absenteeism. In addition to electing the next president, Chileans will also revamp the House of Representatives and half of the Senate.
There is now a greater balance between representatives of the left and right. In the next parliament, DecideChile predicts that the left-wing coalition Unity for Chile (+Allies) will lose seats, and the right-wing coalition of Chile Grande, Unidos and Change for Chile (+Allies) will have a majority of 78 members. There is also a possibility that the right will reach a majority of 26 in the Senate.
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