Chile’s presidential election comes amid far-right surge, political fatigue and fears of violence

• context: Security concerns dominate debate among candidates in late Chilean presidential election
• measurement: Boric proposes sending troops to border by ‘decree’ to fight illegal immigration

The latest opinion poll (ended last week) showed government candidate Jara in the lead with a voting intention rate of 28.5%. As leader of the center-left coalition, she seeks to inherit Mr. Bolić’s political capital, but at the same time distance herself from the erosion of his government.

During her time as labor minister, she was notable for her leadership in reforms such as reducing the working day from 45 to 40 hours and restructuring the country’s pension system, but in her presidential campaign she shifted focus to issues of greatest concern to Chileans and traditionally dominated by the right: security and immigration.

Patricio Navia, a political scientist at New York University (NYU), said the shift is more than just an electoral strategy, but reflects a deeper transformation of the Chilean electorate.

— Security has become the most important issue in recent years, and right-wing candidates usually handle it well because it is easier to promise iron-fisted policies to fight crime — Nabia explains to GLOBO. This concern favors the right over Jara, especially since she is a coalition candidate and the public holds her responsible for the security challenges facing the country.

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Although Chile’s crime rate remains low compared to neighboring countries, with the homicide rate tripling over the past decade from 2.5 to 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, according to the United Nations, but perceptions of insecurity are soaring, which has boosted far-right names such as Casto and Kaiser.

There is also the weight of Borrick’s wear and tear. Although his government managed to pass related reforms, including restructuring the pension system, advancing public health, and strengthening gender and historical memory policies, it also racked up two constitutional defeats, scandals, and mismanagement, including delayed recovery after the Valparaiso fire in 2024.

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Balance is the dominant perception of inefficiency, with support at only 28%, according to a survey conducted by the Center for Public Research in October.

For David Altman, a political science professor at the Catholic University of Chile, all this has created a scenario in which the centrists are eroded and the right comes to be seen as the most stable option for voters.

— After the 2019 protests and pandemic, Chilean society desperately needed an efficient government and social peace. And the Bolić government, at least initially, was interested in other agendas, which clearly caused it to lose support in various sectors of society.

In recent years, the right wing has also moved. Casto, who won 19.9% ​​of the vote in the latest poll, is making his third bid for the presidency, this time adopting a more “moderate” platform. He stuck to the core of his platform of suppressing crime, immediate deportations, and strengthening the security forces, but softened his ultra-conservative tone on moral issues and sought to become more centrist.

This leaves room for the biggest surprise of this election cycle. Kaiser started the poll with 8.21% of the vote, and a few weeks later rose to third place with 15.6%, ahead of right-wing Chilean Vamos coalition Evelyn Mattei with 14.1%.

Considered more radical than Casto, the deputy and digital influencer – a self-proclaimed liberal like Argentine Javier Millei – gained notoriety for his controversial statements (he questioned women’s right to vote and mocked rape cases in interviews) and his aggressive style on the networks. “Chilean Millay” advocates economic ultra-liberalism and, like Donald Trump in the United States, promises to send immigrants with criminal records to El Salvador’s giant prisons.

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Kaiser’s rise is directly related to the new profile of the electorate, as this is Navia’s first election with compulsory voting since Chile returned to the system three years ago. Estimates suggest that about 85% to 95% of voters will turn out to vote.

— Part of Kaiser’s success comes from the fact that he has far more voters today than he did four years ago. Many people who have never voted in a presidential election will now do so, and many of these new voters will vote for Kaiser, who is seen as an outsider, Navia said. –They are also “outsiders” who have never participated in politics.

He added: “Young people are not only dissatisfied with the Boric government, but also with the business elite, and they see Kaiser as someone who does not come from this elite.”

According to a survey conducted in October by ICSO Diego Portales University, 23% of respondents identified themselves as left-wing, 20% as centrist and 32% as right-wing. 25% say they do not adhere to any of these political positions.

–It’s not that Chileans are moving to the right, it’s that there is a realignment of political trust. In some ways, the left has failed on several fronts. I don’t have a center, what should I do? Well, turn right — Altman explains.

This action explains the recent state of Chile’s voting, including the left’s victories in 2021, constitutional defeats in 2022 and 2023, and the traditional right’s gains in local elections in 2024. Voters today have become more pragmatic, reflected in the growing number of right-wing candidates competing against each other, which complicates the former minister’s scenario, Navia assesses.

–It will be a difficult battle for Jara. She should get about 30% of the vote, while the right-wing candidate should get about 60%. He says it will be very difficult for her to reverse this election, especially if she receives less than 30% of the vote in the first round. –If you reach 35%, you have a chance, but it will still be a difficult race.

Boric is scheduled to leave La Moneda Palace in March because the constitution prevents him from running for immediate re-election, but Navia said he is already starting to look ahead to 2029.

— His government failed to achieve the goals he himself had set, namely to put an end to the neoliberal economic model. Although he ended up reinforcing this model, he still sees himself as a left-wing replacement for the right-wing leader who will likely take office in 2026. Therefore, I suspect that Bolić secretly does not want Jarrah, who hopes to become opposition leader, to do so well.