to each technological revolutiondizziness is often confused with euphoria. Whether it’s the railroads of the 19th century, the “dotcom” companies of the ’90s, or today’s artificial intelligence (AI). but, essential difference This time, we are not getting our hopes up, but rather building the foundations for a cognitive revolution that we could never have imagined. What some people call “”bubble” is, strictly speaking, a huge investment in the new productive class of the 21st century.
The numbers speak for themselves without metaphor. big thing Technical fate is near $400 billion Annually, 70% of operating cash flow goes into chips, data centers, and energy. It’s not a slogan, it’s silicon and cement money. This is pure capital investment invested in the race to build the digital factories that sustain society. overall productivity For decades to come.
But unlike the bubble internet AI is already making a difference. Subscription model – etc. co-pilot ChatGPT already generates more than US$9 billion annually, and if it reaches adoption levels comparable to Netflix and Amazon Prime, its potential could exceed US$100 billion. already Enterprise APIIf companies buy “Saas” intelligence, an additional US$8 billion should be moved today, reaching $5 trillion annual dollars.
Autonomous agents, which can perform tasks and transactions without humans, are expected to attract an additional $150 billion in investment. income potential. And intelligent advertising, an evolution of traditional search engines, will add another $100 billion to the board. Overall, economy AI developments are expected to generate over USD 800 billion in annual recurring revenue in the coming years.
Adoption accelerates paradigm CoPilot for Code has already proven productivity, increasing developer productivity by up to 50%. This leads to added value. $1 billion annually. Already in biotechnology, systems like AlphaFold have mapped 200 million proteins in two years and are accelerating. discovery It used to take decades.
On the one hand, we see how large technology companies grow with a stable workforce without bloat, with productivity replacing employment as the driver of expansion. Terminologically macroeconomicsAI is estimated to contribute 1.5 percentage points to further global economic growth. world GDP Approximately US$2 trillion per year until 2035.
Bubbles destroy productivity. This cycle doubles that. All big changes start with a seemingly irrational spending step. of electrification It consumed capital for 20 years at the beginning of the last century before it came to fruition. internet It took a decade to justify that assessment.
AI is in it.”J curve”, revenue has not yet been reflected, but infrastructure is already being installed at US$400 billion per year, with US$1.2 trillion accumulating over the next decade, with the US leading investment by 12:1 compared to China. To be profitable, this infrastructure needs to generate 600,000 USD million incomeThis makes perfect sense compared to the cloud computing business, which seemed overkill 15 years ago.
But you need to understand that the bottleneck is not in development. algorithmBut in the energy sector, data center demand has already increased by 40% and could grow by an additional 70GW in the US alone. By 2030, the equivalent of 60 nuclear power plants or 200 million cubic meters of natural gas per day. AI requires continuous power, not intermittent power. That’s why the atom has returned to the center. board The United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and even Argentina are restarting their nuclear programs. We must always remember that AI is: Steel or railroad?there is a physical basis. There is no software without electronics.
In other words, unlike in the past, the current economic boom is supported by profitability and tangible assets; Capital investment Much of the AI comes from companies with positive cash flow, not from leveraged startups. It is clear that adoption is still in its early stages. Only 5% of users pay for AI, less than 10% of users. company Although fully integrated, its adoption is rapidly increasing.
In short, there is no oversupply, just a shortage of superchips, data centers, and atoms to harness energy. request Explosives for everyday use. Therefore, we need to understand that AI is not the destination of this production revolution, but rather the infrastructure that will accelerate it. Just as the internal combustion engine transformed energy into movement in the early 20th century, AI will transform information into productivity, sparking a cognitive revolution.
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