Country risk decline this week drilled 600 basis pointsthe long-awaited Argentina’s return to international voluntary debt marketsis approaching after a gap of over 7 years. There are many different ones on the market hypothesis approximately times, but generally they believe it will happen within a certain period of time Less than 6 monthsThe amount required depends primarily on the circumstances at the time, but is based on the maturity of the debt.
it is Important events to raise dollars abroad And refinance at least the next debt maturity in a foreign currency. Argentina today does not have the resources to pay for it. Nevertheless, There is a swap concluded with the US.which represents an “insurance” of last resort and is triggered if the bond is not on the market and there are insufficient reserves at the time of payment to bondholders.
he country riska measure that calculates the surcharge on people borrowing above U.S. interest rates, is now about half the level it marked three weeks ago amid political uncertainty before October’s election. At the current mark of 600 points, it would need to go back another 100 units or a bit more to issue debt at “reasonable” interest rates and enter international markets.less than 9% per year.
In other words, according to analysts, Country risk needs to retreat to at least 500 basis points area This would allow Argentina to return to international voluntary debt markets to raise dollars and refinance future commitments in foreign currencies. That would be the minimum necessary to create a new arrangement. Since then, it has gotten even better. Because that means financing at lower interest rates.
Looking forward to the moment of market launch
”It seems that a return to the international market will not be far away.. It depends on what rate you want to verify. I think they need to look at lower interest rates. This should further reduce country risk. maybe we’ll have to wait Payment for bonds due in January“If special financing or cash is available, we believe that at least the capital maturities will be refinanced by July,” the economist estimates. Gabriel Caamano.
in a dialogue with i professionalCaamaño argues that perhaps at this point. Mr. Caputo’s priority is to advance his announced plan to buy back short-term dollar-denominated bonds maturing in 2029 and 2030. The Minister’s aim will be to compress the maturities of short-term capital and accelerate the return to the international autonomous debt market under this strategy.
Gustavo NefaDirector of Research for Traders, he agrees that Caputo’s initial objective was to: repurchase of short-term bonds To limit the amount of debt. He doubts the market launch will happen before the January debt repayment, and believes it will probably happen in the second quarter of next year. He said:With country risk at 600 points, there’s no point in doing it now. So, to avoid paying such a high price, you should do it in the area of at least 500 points.
“I think that if the government’s plan goes along this path, economic activity resumes a little, and the reform progresses, the extraordinary parliament will do well. As long as the country’s risks continue to be compressed, we may test the international market in the first quarter of next year. If everything goes along this path and there are no unforeseen events, there is a good chance,” he added. Diego Martinez Bursacoformer Country Manager at Inviu i professional.
austin maquieiraSailing technically states: Caputo could come to market today in a short tranche. However, given that the commitments for the next two years are already covered by swaps, they are most likely to look for the right time to reduce their cost of funds from a country risk perspective. He estimates that country risk could be in the sub-400 point range and could fall to this level in early 2026, assuming fiscal discipline, exchange rate stability, and no external shocks.
How many dollars does Luis Caputo look for, another central point
martin generoClave Brusatil estimates that the first issue after the return to the international market will be Interest rate will be approximately 8%is still relatively high and is not considered an opportunity to raise dollars. Therefore, he believes that, in principle, Caputo would at most ask for the following: Cover foreign currency debt maturitiesWhether it’s January or July, In both cases, the total amount would be $4.3 billion.
in a dialogue with i professionalMaquieira agrees that logic shows that: The first issue on the international market will aim for an amount sufficient to cover the following maturities: Capital and interests concentrated in Bonales Securities and Globales Securities (4.3 billion USD).
“We believe that in the first phase, issuance will be limited. We estimate the value to be between US$1 billion and US$5 billion.. This is most likely to occur between the second and third quarter of next year. If the January payment is successfully met, bond buybacks are expected and should result in interest rate compression. A bond that currently yields 11% could start to fall to 8% or 9%.” predicts Pablo Lazzati, CEO of Insider Finance.
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