What is ecological niche modeling and how this tool can help fight pests and protect crops?

Did you know that with the help of science, you can predict whether pests will attack your farm before they even invade your farm?

This prediction is possible thanks to a tool known as ecological niche modeling, which is increasingly used by researchers and government agencies to predict environmental risks and plan the management of agricultural and forestry pests.

Climate change and biological invasions are also intensifying as globalization progresses and trade relationships between nations increase significantly.

A biological invasion is when a species invades and disperses into an environment where it did not exist, causing an imbalance in the ecosystem.

In this sense, understanding where species can survive and spread is fundamental for both pests and their natural enemies (such as insects working for biological control).

But what is an ecological niche after all, and how does modeling actually work?

Defining an ecological niche

The first concept of an ecological niche was described by American biologist Joseph Grinnell in 1917, and was characterized as a place where a species could survive, taking into account physiological and dietary factors and interactions with other individuals.

Currently, the term is described as the ecological role a species occupies within an ecosystem, a necessary condition for the species’ survival and interaction with other organisms. We’re talking about temperature, humidity, and light. We are talking about the ecological functions of species within an ecosystem (such as pollinators and decomposers). We also discuss interactions with other species (such as competition, predation, and symbiosis) and how these relationships affect their presence in the environment.

This niche can be divided into two parts.

• Fundamental niche: All environmental conditions in which a species can live without considering limitations such as natural enemies or competition.

• Realized niche: Describes where the species actually lives, taking into account ecological, geographical, and biological factors.

Ecological niche models such as CLIMEX and MaxEnt use species occurrence data (where they have already been recorded) and climate variables to estimate the potential distribution of a species. Such models do not take into account interactions with other species and therefore use the fundamental niche as a theoretical basis.

Therefore, while models can predict where ideal environmental conditions exist for study species, they do not take into account factors such as competition, geographic barriers, dispersal, and natural enemies.

How is modeling done?

In general, a model is a simplified representation of a complex phenomenon. In ecology, these tools allow researchers to input real data (such as field records or environmental variables) to simulate the potential distribution of species across geospatial, current climate, or future climate change scenarios.

These models allow you to:

1. Predict where pests are likely to establish, even in areas they have not yet reached.

2. Assess the effects of climate change on species distributions.

3. Identify areas vulnerable to alien species invasions and outline prevention strategies.

4. Identify areas where natural enemies can successfully invade and plan biological control.

5. Support public policies aimed at biodiversity conservation and phytosanitary safety.

These tools have been applied, for example, to combat pests that attack important agricultural and forestry crops such as soybean, corn, and eucalyptus.

Additionally, it can directly benefit public welfare and health, including by preventing the spread of insect-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever. The disease is a recurring problem in many parts of Brazil, and tends to be intensified during the hottest months of the year when the climate favors mosquito proliferation.

Why is ecological niche modeling important?

Brazil’s agriculture and forestry industry is constantly plagued by pest and disease infestations. Many of these species are invasive, meaning they do not originally belong to our ecosystems and eventually become established without natural enemies, causing environmental, social, and economic imbalances and losses.

In addition to their negative impact on the productive sector, such tools play a fundamental role in the field of public health, helping to prevent and spread disease vectors through the support of surveillance and control strategies.

However, ecological niche modeling stands out as a strategic tool to predict risks, guide management policies and support preventive measures, contributing directly to biodiversity conservation, food security and the sustainability of production systems. ”

Fernanda de Aguiar Coelho does not consult, work for, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that could benefit from the publication of this article, nor has she disclosed any relevant links beyond her academic position.