Syndrome 2010 | Profile

1. Let’s start with a quote. This is from the book Personality and Power by Ian Kershaw, Adolf Hitler’s chief biographer, among others. In Personality…, the British historian tackles an issue often ignored by his colleagues, especially those on the left: how much the psychology of protagonists influences major changes in humanity. Where does ideology end and more passionate questions come in? Kershaw argues in the preface to his seminal text that “History rarely, if ever, offers recipes for the future. But what it does suggest is that the prospect of leaving politics in the hands of strongmen who claim to know the panacea to cure current ills and offer global changes aimed at producing dramatic improvements is rarely desirable.”

2. Approximately the same day that the trade agreement between the United States and Argentina was announced (mentioned in order of importance presented to the signatories of the agreement) was the anniversary of Hegel’s death. On November 14, 1831, the thinker who believed that figures like Napoleon represented the spirit of the time died. Questions remain: How to explain Donald Trump’s selective affinity? How to define the global policy strategy of the economic team led by Javier Millay and Luis Caputo, whose members also include Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno?

3. Various analysts have defined President Trump’s economic thinking as simplistic. For an American president, that would be a minimal amount: in addition to tariffs and donations from various think tanks, an idea supported by the world of billionaires, especially the Silicon Valley world that surrounds Peter Thiel and extends to Vice President Vance. A simple idea, a lot of geopolitics, and an empire’s desire to solve his country’s twin crises: on the one hand, a huge budget deficit — yes, a budget deficit — and, on the other, to revitalize an industry that is sluggish to say the least. According to economist Federico Fubini, “The United States is forced to find buyers for at least $2 trillion of additional national debt every year. This is slightly less than France’s GDP, but it has to put it on the market in order to avoid having to raise the interest rates offered to attract investors. Such an increase could trigger a recessionary spiral in the United States and prove fiscally unsustainable in the medium to long term.”

4. Understanding the need for a new Pax Americana that hints at progress in our regional backyards A key figure in this story is Stephen Millan, who is almost a continuation of Scott Bessent at the Federal Reserve. “Given that President Trump was re-elected with a strong democratic mandate, it is reasonable to expect that his administration will undertake major reforms to the international trade and financial system. In this essay, we examine some of the tools available to accomplish this. Contrary to much of the rhetoric on Wall Street and academics, there are powerful tools available to the administration to influence the terms of trade, the value of currencies, and the structure of international economic relations.”

5. The United States announced the agreement at the same moment that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said his country was preparing for a “1933 situation,” or global conflict. What is China? In a speech at the National War College, covered by Le Grand Continent, he gave a more sophisticated answer: “I’m not even talking about the Chinese Communist Party. The enemy I’m talking about is much closer to us. It’s the Pentagon bureaucracy. It’s not the people that make it up, it’s the procedures. It’s not the civilians, it’s the system. It’s not the men and women in uniform, it’s the uniformity of thought and action that is too often imposed on them.”

6. Here we focus on the other side of the deal, Argentina, and more precisely the government of Javier Millei, which received contributions from the Trump administration before the election. Governments that agree to partner with executives willing to transform global governance systems.

7. This week, Associated Journalist (adjective is better than noun) Alejandro Fantino said the government is starting to consider constitutional changes that would permanently extend the power of the current president. That “Emperor Millais” is not a joke or a marketing strategy. It’s a political project.

8. It should be recalled here that Viktor Orbán took office in Hungary on 29 May 2010 and remains in power today. At the end of these 12 years of Fidesz’s regime, Infobae published a series of portraits showing how the once ultra-liberal figure became the dictator he is today. Censorship, breaking with former allies and, in Vladimir Puthir’s case, aligning themselves, were part of that path. Perhaps it’s not about rereading Sigmund Ginzberg’s book Syndrome 1933 and its disturbing parallels with the present, but rather thinking about how similar Argentine society today is to Hungarian society 15 years ago. These are useful reminders, especially from an institutional and rules perspective.

9. If Luis Caputo’s constant use of the term “communist” to refer to the opposition is effective, we should also think about the effectiveness of the terms “fascism” or “neo-fascism” to describe the world today.

10. As Kershaw himself notes, there are useful (and possible) parallels between certain attitudes of dictators from other eras and politics today. Let me close with another quote from this historian. “As far as I am concerned, I am content to completely avoid the intervention of ‘charismatic’ figures and favor the intervention of leaders who are in a position to provide competent and effective, if less enthusiastic and energetic, governance, based on collective deliberation and rational decisions aimed at improving the lives of all citizens.”