Ecuador’s National Electoral Council (CNE) organized new elections in just 40 days, making the third appointment so far this year and the seventh in just two days. This Sunday, November 16th, Ecuadorians will once again go to the polls at the invitation of President Daniel Novoa. This time, the purpose was not to elect people in power, but to answer three questions aimed at amending the constitution. Citizens will need to speak out against allowing foreign military bases in the country, eliminating state obligations on funding political parties, and reducing the number of parliamentarians. Added to these is a fourth and most crucial question. The question is whether the country should open its doors to a Constituent Assembly to draft a new Basic Law.
The appointments were made on such short notice that only 13 people were assigned to the campaign. There hasn’t been enough time for in-depth discussions, no “door-to-door canvassing” to explain the questions, and some people don’t even know what they’re voting for hours before voting begins. “Some of them benefit the country, some don’t, but we don’t really know because there’s very little information,” says Luis Serrano, a small-scale merchant in Guayaquil, as he adjusts the prices of vegetables. For him, his main concern is not about constitutional reform, but about security concerns. “If we don’t have safety, we can’t work,” he says resignedly. Although violence has begun to grip the people living in his neighborhood, he feels lucky not to be a victim of the “vaccine.” “Everyone is being exploited and we cannot even work in peace,” he added, searching for a glimmer of hope in his words.
A few meters away, Gonzalo Abad, a retired laundry worker, didn’t even seem interested in knowing what the question was. “For what? No matter what they say, it’s not going to change what’s going on in this country. All the president wants is for us to support him politically.” He is clearly tired of politics. He says he doesn’t pay attention to the referendum question because the referendum result does not change the day-to-day realities facing the country.
For political analyst Esteban Long, the dissatisfaction reflects an “addiction” caused by a decade of non-stop electoral processes. In his opinion, the average citizen does not even know what the process of creating a constitution means, much less what constitutional amendment means. In fact, President Novoa was reluctant to reveal details. Asked about his vision for the new law, he said: “Let’s win the election first. Then we’ll talk about what we’ll do.”
Ron also points out that the constitution-making process was not honest. Recall that the last experience of this kind occurred 17 years ago during the Rafael Correa government. “The people do not understand that if the Constituent Assembly is approved, they will have to go back to the polls next February to elect members of the Constituent Assembly, who will be proposed by the same political parties that are largely rejected,” he warns. If a Constituent Assembly is forced, it would have to vote on a new constitutional project and then hold a new general election, extending the election date until 2027. “Only then will we know the results of this new public management scheme,” he concludes.
Ron argues that Ecuador does not have the time to undertake such fundamental reforms in the midst of a long-standing social, economic and security crisis. The real question is whether this country needs a new constitution or whether addressing the people’s immediate problems should be prioritized.
For political analyst Pamela Leon, calls for a new basic law in the current context respond to a political gesture full of symbolism rather than a real need. “The invocation of the new constitution is, to a large extent, an attempt to erase any remaining collegialism in the country. It is an effort to ‘decrelate’ the country’s institutions,” he says. Leung added that while these types of measures may have political utility, they do not solve people’s daily lives. “Governments seek to rewrite the country’s symbolic framework based on their own narratives, but this need not lead to concrete solutions for ordinary people.”
On the other hand, the executive branch has remained relatively politically calm. The opposition is fragmented, without a common strategy, and unable to counter the state apparatus, which functions without failure under the leadership of Daniel Novoa. The president continued to govern with permission to campaign and took a series of measures to strengthen his image. He gave them financial bonuses and announced the start of construction on a high-security prison that he had promised to build (though construction is still only 40% complete). And despite this, it transferred more than 300 prisoners, including former vice president and last bishop of Correizm, Jorge Glass.
At the same time, there are daily police operations in the country, and authorities say the most dangerous criminals are being arrested. Furthermore, public institutions are actively participating in the “Yes” campaign without any sanctions being imposed by the National Election Commission. In this context, Novoa was able to consolidate his claims without major obstacles, supported by a well-coordinated media structure with the government.
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