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The specter of the “Chilean pendulum” dominates the presidential election

deercreekfoundation November 15, 2025
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This Sunday, Chile will celebrate the presidential election with members of parliament and in the shadow of the presidential election. chili pendulum Overwrite the results. 2006 marks 20 years since a president handed over power to someone who would inherit his political personality. I went with Ricardo Lagos, a socialist, who handed over the presidential band to Michelle Bachelet, also a socialist, who was minister of health and defense. Since then, Izquierda and Derecha Ján have alternately ruled Chile, as if voters punish incumbents with anger and suspicion and always bet on change. So in these meetings, everything seems to indicate that the trend is in favor of the right, and even more so in favor of no one, namely the bipartisanship of José Antonio Casto, who is running as the front-runner for the 2026-2030 presidential election.

This is not a predicted fate. The Gabriel Boric government is progressive, led by a new generation of youthful people, but it has failed to convene great mayors and maintains a solid but static 30% support, which is useless in winning elections. At the beginning of the administration, there were boundless expectations, but boomerang. The results showed a high rejection rate, with a 62% concordance rate with the previous survey by the Center for Public Research (CEP).

Jose Antonio Casto at the start of his election campaign in Santiago on November 11th.Cristian Soto Quiros

Analyzing the past six years since 2019 in Chile, political decisions in cities are clearly inconsistent at the moment. Social unrest crystallized with the riots that began on October 18, 2019, when the presidential approval was lowered this month upon the inauguration of the ruling party government by the second Sebastián Piñera (2018-2022), who was elected with 57% support. 4.6%, and in the following years Piñera handed over the reins to Boric.

About the Constitution’s Failed Attempts

The social uprising, which included mass marches demanding improved pensions, education, and health, sparked massive political turmoil and a wave of extraordinary violence. On November 15, 2019, the entire Chilean political class, except the Communist Party (PC), I agree with peace and a new constitutionwhich sought political solutions to the crisis, was signed a day after extreme violence in the streets. The document also reflected the name of then-Deputy Prime Minister Boric.

agreement Amid the pandemic, Chileans were allowed to go to the polls on October 25, 2020, to vote in an immigration referendum on whether to re-enact the 1980 constitution created under Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship. 78% of voters were in favor of enacting a new basic charter, and 78% submitted the draft to the Constitutional Assembly, which is made up of 155 citizens. – 17 slots are reserved for the original community that was supposed to write it in the election.

The election was held on May 17, 2021, and resulted in the election of a majority (68%) of left-leaning independents among the Puebloists, amidst this escalating social explosion. The winds were in Izquierda’s favor, with Boric on the ground winning the blockade primary in July of this year. Apurvo Dignidad against communist Daniel Jadu. In November, the second Vuelta with Kast passed, and La Moneda was set to be his second. In the meantime, I was elected President of the Republic with 55% of the vote.

While the Constituent Convention was underway, the young Bolić government deposited much of its reform implementation, betting that Chile would approve the new constitution. But the process ended in a fiasco full of extreme and identitarian proposals. In the referendum on September 4, 2022, which took half a year for the front government, 62% of Chileans firmly rejected the proposal, while 38% voted in favor. It was the first time that voting was compulsory and automatically entered into the register.

The disappointment was greater. But then traditional right-wing consensus made possible a different constitutional process. In a new election on May 7, 2023, he chili pendulum After a left-wing party convention, a 55-member Constitutional Council was elected for the first time, and the Republican Party founded by Casto defeated the mayor with 35% of the vote. The opposition took the lead in drafting the constitution, along with the traditional right-wing bloc, which won 21% of the vote. Borich’s public approval rating was 28%, and he lost his veto power.

However, the proposed ordinance based on the Constitution was rejected by 55% in a 2023 opinion poll due to the strong conservative sentiments of the Republican Party.

Chile thus broke a record in 15 months when both the left and the right rejected a constitutional proposal to remain in the same Rey de Reyes, which was born with Pinochet but has been reformed 70 times and has taken over the government of socialist Ricardo Lagos since 2005.

Janet Jara attends the campaign presentation at Plaza Maipu in Santiago on November 11th.cristobal venegas

dishonest voters

Chile prepares for elections in which his ghost will appear political pendulum Go around again. Opinion polls place former Boric minister Janet Hara as the front-runner of the left-wing bloc and communist extremists. But according to most dreams, I went to the balloon with Kast, who won on the second trip. Moreover, a more powerful leader has emerged behind the Republican Party. That is Johannes Kaiser, a liberal who could achieve a third goal.

Daniel Mansuy, a Chilean academic and intellectual, said that if Bolić’s leftists were elected as the opposition party, “you would have to think about everything that happens within your own government, how many expectations you have to disappoint. 40 points will be added between Kast and Kaiser, which will be a great legacy, and at least 35 points will be added.The government and the Amplio Front will deal with this phenomenon with some responsibility, and this is something I cannot agree with,” he said in an interview with EL. path.

This election also has the important benefit of mandatory voting, which will be repeated in 2022 for the constitution-making process. This means that while last time representatives were elected at a convention attended by around 8 million voters, this time around 15.7 million people will have to vote. Although the local elections in October 2024 may shed some light on the situation, the direction of the opposition parties remains unclear. In the parliament, the stronghold of political power, the opposition party increased its seats from 746 to 1,068, equivalent to 47% of the total in the national election.

Cassia Araujo, a social researcher and Ph.D. in American Studies, points out that “mandatory voting masks apathy from politics.” What is noteworthy is that although “everyone is interested in elections,” it is “not unique.” A scholar from the University of Santiago said: la segunda Their study found that many people say they come from socialist families, but “they want to vote for the Kaiser, Casto, Parisi.

Jara also mentioned this dissatisfaction. This is what it says will happen El Mercurio de Valparaiso Today, “people involved in politics in all walks of life must engage in self-criticism. As I understand it, the main challenge is not whether the pendulum swings to one side or the other, as many people who are dissatisfied with politics do. This is acute in a society seeking social cohesion and progress.”

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