Chileans are being asked to vote tomorrow in presidential and parliamentary elections characterized by strong polarization between the far-right and the communist-led ruling party, and by the fatigue of a population exhausted by successive electoral processes over the past four years and frightened by the growing security situation.
Eight candidates are seeking the presidency, with debates about security, immigration and economic recovery dominating the election campaign.
The contest focuses on a battle between the ruling party’s only candidate, communist Janet Hara, who is leading in polls, and several prominent right-wing leaders eager to change ideological direction. Since 2006, power has oscillated between left and right, with no one from the same political lineage ever taking over as president.
Political scientist Michel Hafemann said, “The center is starting to hollow out, and positions are moving away from the extremes.” “At the moment, no one is inclined to practice moderation,” he added.
To be elected, a candidate must receive a majority of valid votes, otherwise a second round of voting will be held on December 14th.
Unlike the left-wing coalition, the right has never held primaries and its support is fragmented. Jose Antonio Casto, the founder of the Republican Party and a former congressman running for the third time in La Moneda, leads the opposition coalition and is leading the polls with Jara.
But he has lost support in recent weeks, with traditional right-wing candidate Evelyn Massey, who had been leading the polls for months, falling to fourth place. Meanwhile, other candidates, such as the far-right National Liberal Party deputy Johannes Kaiser, have won support by promising a tough stance on drug trafficking and giving speeches supporting the deportation of illegal immigrants.
Four years ago, when outgoing President Gabriel Boric defeated Mr. Casto, the election was focused on an agenda of personal values and freedoms, after massive and violent protests in 2019 and 2020 demanding structural reforms such as pension reform, replacing the constitution drafted during the military dictatorship (1973-1990), and improving health and education.
However, in recent years, the emergence of phenomena previously unknown to Chileans, such as the entry of drug lords, associated increases in violence, and unprecedented illegal immigration, has changed voters’ concerns and shaped political discourse.
As a result, candidates have focused government programs on so-called “emergency issues” aimed at reassuring the public, with little or no discussion of issues such as reproductive rights, environmental policy, and the rights of LGBTI, indigenous peoples, and other minority communities.
“This condition is being used to its full potential,” but “candidates should expect to have proposals that move beyond the emergency,” Hafemann clarified.
Projects related to foreign policy and the promotion of education are also not featured in debates or campaigns.
“Everyone is responding to the sensitivities of the people, but there is no development roadmap on the table,” political analyst Guillermo Holzmann told the AP.
Tomorrow’s election will be held amidst apathy and political fatigue. In recent years, Chile has gone to the polls in two electoral processes, but there remains a sense of inertia and little change.
“The current moment is very different from four years ago… We live in a post-social explosion era, having experienced two failed constitutional referendums, continuing economic instability and inflation, fueled by an influx of ill-managed immigration,” explained Michael Albertus, a political science professor at the University of Chicago.
The country is also experiencing a period of distrust in institutions. An analysis by the Center for Public Research (CEP) released on October 30 found that one in five voters had not yet decided on a presidential choice, making this a “special aspect of this election”.
Experts attribute the public’s disillusionment to the lack of concrete progress following the social pandemic. The riots were the most violent since the country’s return to democracy in 1990, leaving more than 20,000 people dead, including 30 dead and about 460 with eye injuries.
“Chile has gone through a very complex four years, two constitutional processes and attempts to amend the constitution, and the people are very exhausted, and the government and political parties are very exhausted,” said Catalina Calderon, director of campaigns and advocacy programs at the Center for Women’s Equality.
Adding to this dissatisfaction is growing dissatisfaction with the management of Boric, who is leaving office with an approval rating of about 62%. The current president, a former student leader, was elected on a promise on social issues but has made little headway amid the growing need for measures to balance a devastated economy that has never fully recovered from the pandemic and strengthen the country in the face of a growing wave of violence.
The undecideds include so-called “realists,” voters who must vote out of obligation but are “de-ideological, don’t believe in left or right, but want answers,” Holzmann said, asserting that Sunday’s election could be a “surprise,” as happened recently in Bolivia.
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