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Will space become the setting for the Cold War of the 21st century?

deercreekfoundation November 15, 2025
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Scientific experiments are conducted every day on the International Space Station, which is approximately 400 kilometers from Earth.

he outer space treaty Signed in London, Moscow, and Washington in 1967, it sets out basic principles for the exploration and use of the Moon and other celestial bodies, including the Moon. In recent years, with the increase in space actors, Review the basic assumptions of that agreement It was sanctioned during the Cold War and the Vietnam War. the current No agreement reached regarding updates within the United Nations.

As of mid-year, 117 countries had ratified the treaty, making it the equivalent of a space Magna Carta. According to Article II, “outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, They may not be subject to claims of sovereignty, use, appropriation, or in any other way state appropriation.”.

The year after approval, issues related to the rescue of astronauts and the return of space objects that have fallen into unknown jurisdictions were regulated. 1972, during the Republican Richard Nixon administration. Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Outer Space Activities. Three years later, a law was passed on the registration of objects launched into space. Finally, in 1979, President Jimmy Carter’s term ended. moon agreement Adopted by the United Nations General Assembly.

In 1998, Intergovernmental Agreement on the International Space Station (AIG) is an international treaty signed by the governments of 15 countries involved in projects for civilian space stations that are permanently occupied for peaceful purposes and subject to regulations of international law.

In 2020, the U.S. government, along with seven other early signatories, artemis accord To improve the governance of space exploration and civilian uses. signatories to the agreement Working on a space debris reduction planThis includes the safe, timely and efficient disposal of the spacecraft at the end of its mission. This goal will not be easy to achieve in the short term, as discussed below, and will require millions of dollars in public and private investment to advance it.

In this sense, researchers Kathleen Curley and Lauren Kahn from the Georgetown Center for Security and Emerging Technologies recently published a study titled:Mapping space debris: Interactive data visualization of orbital debris and its originsResearchers examined 34,000 pieces of space debris that the U.S. government has tracked since 1958. These space debris were distributed in four major orbital regions: low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), geostationary orbit (GEO), and highly elliptical orbit (HEO).

The report’s authors note that a large portion of daily communications relies on satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). As more objects orbit, there will be more collisions and more debris. Most of the catastrophic failures that generated large amounts of space debris occurred in LEO. “The more crowded the orbit, the greater the risk that even a single fragmentation will have ripple effects,” the researchers argue.

Researchers discovered that:The United States, Russia (and the former Soviet Union), and China are responsible for nearly 95% of the cataloged debris currently in orbit.” and that “just 20 fragmented satellites and rocket bodies make up nearly 73 percent of all tracked debris still in orbit.”

According to european space agency Currently, there are approximately 1 million pieces of space debris between 1 centimeter and 10 centimeters, and more than 36,500 objects larger than 10 centimeters. Since space exploration began in 1957, 6,380 spacecraft have been launched and more than 15,000 satellites have been placed in orbit.only about 7,000 of them work.

In recent years, several countries have allocated significant investments to curb the spread of space debris. For example, in July this year, the UK Space Agency (UKSA) launched a £75.6m tender for an active space debris removal mission to remove decommissioned satellites from orbit.

anthony vinci He was the first Chief Technology Officer of the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). He holds a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics (LSE) and published monumental essays such as: “The Fourth Intelligence Revolution. The Future of Espionage and the Fight to Save America.”

fourth revolution
The fourth revolution in intelligence

This paper explores various hypotheses regarding the conflicts that have arisen due to China’s technological advances over the past decade. In 2014, the Communist Party opened up the space sector to private capital, and in 2019 launched the China Commercial Space Alliance to boost domestic and global commercial growth, which has been ruled by the Xi Jinping government since 2013.

He explains it this way: “Increasing competition between the United States and China, or the United States and Russia, will eventually extend beyond the moon.”. China’s plans for space domination are very similar to the strategies it used to dominate the 5G and rare earth markets”.

China’s space technology market is mainly dominated by state-owned enterprises China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASTC). According to Vinci research, approximately 6,000 of the more than 10,000 satellites in orbit will be in orbit in 2024. space xis the world’s largest commercial space company. Elon Musk.

famous british philosopher AC Grayling Last year, he said,Who owns the moon?: To protect humanity’s common interests in space. The academic, who founded London’s New College of Arts and Sciences in 2010, is skeptical about current space regulations. “There is only one regulatory framework that is very weak and outdated, and that is the 1967 United Nations Deep Space Treaty. That treaty only prevents militarization of the moon; it prevents militarization of the moon in other respects,” he said. Terra Nulliussimilar to a Wild West scenario, unregulated activities are allowed. ”

Who owns it?
Who owns the moon? Written by AC Grayling

Colonization leads to claims of ownership and sovereignty, particularly on the Moon and Mars, but there are no solid structures to regulate these developments or resolve disputes. The idea of ​​a lunar orbiting station, combined with the fact that water on the moon can be converted into rocket fuel by splitting hydrogen and oxygen, makes the moon the first step in exploring Mars.

Grayling, a disciple of the eminent analytical philosopher Alfred J. Eyre, concludes that spatial governance develops from these early ideas rather than from rational and consolidated international agreements.

According to a report released by a consulting company, McKinsey At the beginning of this year, “The global space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion (adjusted for inflation) in 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023.”.

This number includes both application The basics (satellites, launch vehicles, services like TV and GPS, etc.), what we call them, etc. Scope of application (Space technology helps generate income for companies in various sectors).

One of the most prominent science popularizers of the 20th century. Isaac Asimov (1920-1992) summed up the future of space conflict better than anyone. “There is only one war that humanity is allowed to fight, and it is a fight against the extinction of humanity.”.

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