COP30 negotiations continue at their usual slow pace, with resistance expressed to Brazil and Azerbaijan’s plans for a so-called “roadmap” towards the $1.3 trillion climate finance goal. According to the COP President, the dispute is about the legitimacy of discussing the issue in Belem, not the substance of the discussion.
While this amount seems ambitious, given that concrete progress is still weak, Ipea’s research shows that this is the least amount developed countries have ever owed for carbon emissions.
But the biggest event of the day was a demonstration march in Belém that drew around 70,000 people. The streets of the capital city of Pará were occupied by protests by various social movements, particularly indigenous groups.
Read below for a summary of the most important things you need to know about this Saturday (15th).
1. US$1.3 trillion climate change plan meets resistance as countries divide
A document prepared by the COP29 and COP30 presidencies suggesting a pathway to US$1.3 trillion per year in climate finance divided delegates. Countries such as Japan, China and Kenya expressed skepticism, not because of its technical content, but because they understood the document did not form part of the COP’s formal negotiating mandate.
Norway, the United Kingdom and the European Union expressed support and even suggested ways to monitor the plan’s implementation over time.
COP30 President Andre Correa de Lago stressed that the resistance was due to the legitimacy of the discussions within the conference, as some points affected multilateral institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank. He said he was satisfied with the discussions and said Brazil would continue to work on the roadmap after the meeting as part of its COP Presidency.
The study brings together contributions from governments, banks, businesses and researchers and proposes a review of financial rules, greater access to private capital in developing countries, and the creation of new sources of financing, including taxes and mechanisms such as carbon markets and climate debt swaps.
2. Approximately 70,000 people gather in Belém for march during COP30
During COP30, around 70,000 people took to the streets of Belém for the Global Climate March, an event featuring diversity, music and demands for climate justice. Social movements, international organizations and thousands of Amazonian indigenous peoples led the procession, which spanned four kilometers and included banners, songs and performances including a “funeral for fossil fuels.”
This was the first major demonstration at the COP since 2021, after years of meetings held in countries with restrictions on freedom of expression. The strongest agenda came from indigenous peoples, particularly the downstream Tapajós, who led marches calling for the closure of the region’s waterways, the cancellation of Ferrogran Island, and the halt to oil exploration in the Amazon estuary.
Leaders highlighted that this is the largest participation of indigenous peoples in the history of the COP and stressed the importance of traditional territories in facing the climate crisis. The atmosphere was one of intense but peaceful mobilization, between criticism of the government and demands for urgent action. The group safely dispersed upon arrival in Aldeia Amazonica, marking the end of one of the most emblematic events of COP30.
3. Research shows that countries owe the world US$97 trillion for pollution.
According to research by Ipea, developed countries have accumulated an estimated US$97.5 trillion in ‘climate debt’ since 1990 by exceeding their emissions allowances. The study calculates how much each country can emit to limit global warming to 1.5°C and assigns an economic value to the excess carbon released into the atmosphere. The United States leads the way in debt, followed by Japan and Brazil, the latter mainly due to deforestation.
The study argues that this debt serves as a climate justice tool rather than a punishment. The report recommends measures such as a tax on billionaires and the creation of a global minimum tax to help countries compensate for damage, remove carbon and restore degraded areas. The study also highlights that current large emitters, such as China, are not yet in the ‘red’ due to their population size, but warns that this does not justify new uncontrolled emissions.
This conclusion highlights the discrepancy between the size of the historic debt and what is internationally promised.
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