UN Secretary-General António Guterres last month dismissed the possibility of the world limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Although expected, this does not mean that 1.5°C will be lost forever or that the Paris Agreement will end. 1.5°C should still be a climate indicator.
The 1.5℃ temperature that we have often heard about in recent years is a result of the Paris Agreement. They agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global temperature rise to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or below 2 degrees Celsius.
To make this a reality, there was an emphasis from the beginning on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly and significantly. But if you remember Greta Thunberg’s classic 2021 speech, “Green economy, blah, net zero, blah, blah,” you’ll see how things went after the Paris Agreement.
Although it was not mentioned in Greta’s speech, the 1.5°C goal was almost hopeless at that point. For example, it was common to hear from experts that this objective could not be achieved. At COP26, held in Glasgow, Scotland, one of the mottos was “maintain 1.5°C.” Alok Sharma, the conference’s chairman, said the agreement reached at the conference managed to maintain 1.5 degrees Celsius, but with the caveat that “its pulse is weak and will only survive if we keep our commitments and turn commitments into swift action.”
I couldn’t survive. After all, greenhouse gas emissions have increased by more than 40% over the past 30 years. Looking more closely, the situation remains unchanged. Emissions have basically been increasing since the Paris Agreement, and even broke records in 2024, the hottest year on record, or the coolest year of our lifetime.
Exceeding the 1.5°C target would not only be tragic for the small islands that initially supported the idea. If global average temperatures rise beyond this magnitude, the planet will experience more frequent and more destructive extreme events over several decades, something we are already experiencing firsthand. It’s not over yet, at least for humanity, but the consequences will be dire.
But what can be done about this? The same speech by Guterres that publicly buried 1.5°C also brought demands and possible solutions.
The idea is that even though it is unavoidable that temperatures exceed 1.5°C, this need not be the definitive reality. By making urgent and necessary emissions cuts now (the goal is still a long way off) and investing in forms of carbon capture such as reforestation (although this alone will not be enough), the planet could return to below 1.5 degrees Celsius in the decades closest to the end of this century.
But to do this, we need to apply the phrase “climate change ambition” that is often heard in the climate crisis dialect. As researcher Johan Rockström, one of the most respected voices in planetary science, points out, even the most progressive climate change targets currently do not match the crisis at hand.
Even if all climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement are met and recently updated to reflect emerging realities, the planet is currently on track for warming that could exceed 2.5°C.
The routes and mechanisms to contain the climate crisis are largely outlined, including eliminating dependence on fossil fuels and disinvesting in this sector, and investing in and expanding renewable energy. Therefore, during the COP there are many demands to implement everything that was signed during the so-called conference. For the same reason, there is also talk of whether or not promises can be achieved. Lula is one of the leaders who speaks about this often.
It remains to be seen how the world and its climate ambitions will react in the face of this new reality that emerges as temperatures rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius. The “somehow” Greta said is becoming more and more deadly.
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