The following information should be considered: From this month until December, Argentina must make payments to international organizations in each country. 2.3 billion USD. As before, dollars from reserves will be used. Importantly, this method of fulfilling foreign debt commitments is running out. And you have to make a decision.
To hand it over neatly, If, as speculated, the remaining payments for this year are made in BCRA dollars; Net reserves will remain negative at approximately USD 12 billion.
This is on a historic level, never before has it been so negative.
Therefore, in the market, investors wait for the next development. It’s getting huge again Demands for governments to start accumulating foreign currency through direct purchases At the market. Something the government didn’t want to do.
Before the weekend, central bank governor Federico Friase insisted that the possibility of building up foreign exchange reserves would be on the formal agenda this time. However, no plans have been made public. For now.
An important test for Luis Caputo: Wall Street’s warning
PIMCO Funds, one of the leading international investment funds, is putting future currency market issues at the forefront of its current analysis.
Pramol Dhawan, head of emerging markets portfolio management at Pimco, reached a crossroads in defining exchange bands after hearing Javier Millay defend them.
Dhawan said the government should use the country’s big electoral victory and historic support from President Donald Trump’s administration to eradicate the gang system. Then let the coin float. “If you want to break the boom-bust cycle, it’s better to act while the economy is good.” Recommended by an investor.
Debt maturities complicate matters for ministers. Are reserves sufficient?
There are very specific reasons why Wall Street and the city of Buenos Aires are asking Millais-Caputo to rush the market by buying dollars. Next is the obligation to pay the debt to the investor.
It is estimated that approximately US$9 billion in external profits will be generated by 2026. That’s 800 million USD per month. or Between $30 million and $40 million per day.
So far in 2025, the Treasury has not purchased any dollars net, and interest on the debt is being paid with IMF disbursements determined in April.
“We need both legs to clear the external debt horizon. “The financial engineering of the U.S. Treasury to buy dollars to refinance the principal and earn interest from the Argentine Treasury.” said i professional A financier who knows about large amounts of debt.
Competition between interest rates and the dollar
Given the above commitments, the market demand for Caputo to buy dollars again as soon as possible must be analyzed in a different context. Economic activity was hit hard by market illiquidity and soaring interest rates in the run-up to the election.
In that sense, the government acted quickly. He supported lower currency costs without hinting at increased tensions in the dollar market.
In the current situation, it worked that way, buoyed by the good mood in the market after La Libertad Avanza’s victory.
Financial players’ eyes are now focused on the remainder of November and December.
The supply of money will be very low. Most of the dollars at this time had already been liquidated by grain companies during September due to the suspension of withholding taxes.
Decisions for summer
2026 starts out not much different. There are many months left until a bountiful harvest is harvested.and beyond the fruit of the bumper harvest, the dollar interest rate race could heat up from January.
The need to continue lowering currency costs, along with the obligation to raise dollars to pay debts, will put pressure on the market.
“The great macro challenge of 2026 is “How to restore liquidity and economic activity, prevent exchange rate appreciation, and stop disinflation.”, Suggests that the same financier is being consulted i professional
The government appears determined to take a “step-by-step” approach to turn the variables around and avoid chaos that would make things unmanageable. A challenging month is coming.
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