The COP30 climate summit begins this Monday in Belem (Brazil) amid strong ideological resistance to tackling the climate crisis fueled by denialist populism. Ten years ago, 195 countries signed a historic agreement in Paris, pledging to keep temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and as far as possible to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this, it was essential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But the world remains tied to the burning of fossil fuels, and 2023, 2024, and 2025 are the three hottest years on record. We have already reached that threshold of 1.5 degrees last year, when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased at a record rate, and it is inevitable that we will exceed that threshold in the next decade.
At a time when there is an urgent need to reverse this trend, President Trump’s return to the White House has given wings to denialism across the globe. The United States decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for the second time in January, explicitly withdrawing from United Nations emissions reporting and threatening to impose tariffs on countries that support environmental taxes on maritime shipping. President Trump has decided not only to turn his back on science, but also to abandon the fight against an existential threat to humanity.
As a result, the rise of the far right has caused moderate conservative parties, particularly in the EU, to retreat from environmental policy. A case in point is the reform of European climate law agreed last week, which maintains a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040 compared to 1990, but includes concessions to reluctant partners and reductions in ambition in which large powers such as Germany and France have played a fundamental role.
Thus, the Belen talks begin with bleak prospects of reaching an inconsequential agreement. The United States, which accounts for 11% of global emissions, is boycotting the summit, while the world’s biggest emitters, China, India and Russia (which together account for about 43% of emissions), are sending second-level delegations. Of the 195 signatories to the Paris Agreement, 115 have not kept their promise to submit their 2035 emissions reduction targets to the United Nations. The previous conference, held in Baku a year ago, already ended with a limited agreement that fell far short of developing countries’ demands, but at least this time it demonstrated the resilience of multilateralism, which is more essential.
The hope, and paradox, is that thanks to advances in renewable energy and electric mobility, the world is in a better position than ever to abandon fossil fuels. A strong message in that sense should come from Belen. This fight is not ideological, but simply survival.
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