COP30 in Belem begins with the challenge of renewing the global cooperation that characterized Rio 92

The timing of COP30 is very different, both meteorologically and chronologically, from the sunny, cool days of Rio de Janeiro’s winter when the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, known as Rio 92 or the Earth Summit, was held in Rio de Janeiro from June 3 to 14, 1992. The sunset on the closing Sunday of Rio 92 was golden and seemed to reflect a widespread glow of hope, recalls Ambassador Rubens Ricupero, who led the negotiations for the conference’s funding. He is one of the most knowledgeable people on international climate policy.

It was a sunny Sunday in Rio, and the blue water beaches and parks were filled with people from all over the world. It brings together representatives from Lapland (Finland) to the Amazon, from the island nations of Oceania to the savannah and forest countries of Africa. What they have in common is a desire to create a better world.

At the time (more than 30 years ago) more than 120,000 people, including ordinary citizens and participants, participated in the Global Forum, which brought together civil society. Celebrities of the time were also in attendance, including Pele, the Dalai Lama, Al Gore, Sting, Jane Fonda, Roger Moore, and Shirley MacLaine.

But Rio 92 took place in an optimistic world, where old tensions were eased and concerns about the future heightened. Just two years ago, the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union disbanded. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) climate projections, created in 1988, presented a bleak outlook for the 21st century. It was about ensuring a better world for future generations.

COP30 is being held at a time when the global climate and world politics have deteriorated. It would be unthinkable today for US President George Bush to speak at the same plenary session as Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.

— Today’s climate is darker and less conducive to consensus. The realistic expectation for COP30 is to keep the process moving forward, despite concerns about the United States, European countries heading to war, and many other issues, Ricupero stresses.

COP30 is the daughter of Rio92. But environmental activist Fabio Feldman, author of Brazil’s environmental chapter and a fellow COP veteran, says it happened while the optimism of his forefathers seemed like a mere memory of simpler times.

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with human actions and the resulting climate change are progressing faster than negotiations to curb them. Thirty-three years ago, the goal was to prevent climate change. After 30 years of much discussion and little action, they changed the tense of the verb. It was the future. already exists.

What was predicted for the end of the century was realized in the first decades with drought disasters, extreme heat and cold waves, hurricanes, and devastating rains. Emissions reduction and mitigation remain necessary, but adaptation is now a matter of life and death.

Future generations, the children of the Rio-92 era, will come of age on a planet even more unfavorable than predicted in the last century.

— We are in an extreme situation. Both climate disaster and hyperpolarization, climate denialism linked to economic interests. However, since COP30 will be held in Brazil, we have higher expectations than many countries. However, Feldman emphasizes that Brazil has very good diplomacy and can bring about change by continuing the fundamental discussion on decarbonizing the planet.

Ricupero emphasizes that Rio 92 was the most successful conference in history. However, he points out that the model needs to change.

— Since then, some progress has been made, including the 2015 Paris Agreement, but the model needs to be updated. Today, I’m skeptical about COP. If they figure that out, we won’t be in the top 30. Money will no longer come from states, but from multilateral sources and markets. It is currently unrealistic to wait for countries to make significant contributions.

Thirty years later, Rio 92 remains the largest conference of world leaders in United Nations history, representing 179 countries. 29 people attended the climate summit held last Thursday and Friday.

Rio 92 resulted in the Conventions on Climate Change (the most important treaty, signed by 198 countries and virtually all countries participating), on biodiversity and on combating desertification. Agenda 21 and the Declaration of Principles on Forests. Rio 92 not only ushered in a heyday of multilateralism, but also marked a new era of civil society participation.

Rio 92 was the result of five years of negotiations. However, there is a consensus that great innovation comes from the participation of civil society, emphasizes Maria Netto, Executive Director of the Institute for Climate and Society. From there, the concepts of sustainability and climate change spread.

The Paris Agreement agreed at COP21 has contributed to slowing global warming trends. According to World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis, global warming scenarios would have been even more severe had the Paris Agreement not been adopted. In 2015, before the agreement was signed, it was predicted that average global temperatures could rise by about 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels this century. Current commitments under this agreement mean the world is now on track for about 2.6°C of warming. It’s still dangerous and expensive, but it’s not devastating.

— Rio 92 was a turning point where conservation was no longer seen as hostile to economics. And concerns about climate change caused by human actions extend to public opinion, says Karen Oliveira, director of public policy at the Brazilian Nature Conservancy and member of the Brazilian Climate, Forestry and Agriculture Coalition.

On the eve of the opening of COP30, the number of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by signatories to the Paris Agreement reached 106. Therefore, just over half of the 195 signatories to the Paris Agreement have updated their emissions reduction targets.

COP30, held in Belém, was born without the intervention of the parent conference. Its mission is to operate at the limits of the possible and to avoid submerging the climate change negotiation process in a global moment even more turbulent than the waters of the Guama River that flows through Belém.

Maria Netto said Brazil would once again take the lead in promoting the importance of multilateralism, as it did during Rio 92.

–The worlds of Rio 92 and COP30 are very different. But Belém’s challenges also include opportunities, including promoting restoration and combating deterioration. In this sense, the Rio92 competition begins to converge.

Some believe there is reason to be optimistic about parallel, rather than formal, negotiations.

–This is the moment when the baton is passed to the business sector. Creating impact while also making the sectors affected more visible. Rio 92 saw very little participation like this, but it has matured considerably. Rio 92 was marked by unprecedented participation from civil society. In this case, the same thing will happen in the business world. In that sense, I’m very optimistic. I see the business community’s involvement in Brazil as unprecedented. Roberto Waack, Chairman of the Board of the Instituto Arapyaú and co-founder of the Concertação para a Amazônia, emphasizes: