In an attempt to organize a debate on security before the 2026 elections, the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) has redoubled its focus on PT-controlled states in the northeast, which are facing increased mortality due to police intervention and the advance of criminal factions. The main areas of alert are Bahia and Ceará states, which are being exploited by Lula rebels due to difficulties in containing the escalating violence. In states such as Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte, the federal government is trying to take action that could become a highlight of the election campaign.
The Planalto Palace movement aims to strengthen ties in the security field with countries ruled by allies to avoid noise that could cause tensions for the PT next year. In Bahia, for example, Lula last week praised an operation carried out by the state’s civil police, supported by the Federal Police (PF), aimed at “dismantling the armament and financial core” of the Red Army Command (CV). The action, which ended in the deaths of 38 prisoners and one suspect, came a week after a major Rio government operation against the group that left 121 people dead and 99 arrested.
In contrast to the balance in Rio, the low lethality of Operation Bahia was praised by allies of Governor Jeronimo Rodríguez (PT) at a time when Lula was criticizing the Rio de Janeiro government for what he called the “murder” of the police. According to data from the Brazilian Public Safety Yearbook, from 2022 onwards, the state of Bahia will be at the top of the ranking in terms of deaths caused by police, with Rio leading the way until then.
Geronimo has tried in recent days to adjust his speech to avoid conflict with the president in this area, insisting that “it is not the role of the state to kill people.”
— Without abandoning the resolute nature of police action in the fight against sectarianism, we have better equipped forces and have stepped up operations in the state in coordination with each other and the federal government. The results are showing: in 2025, there will be fewer violent deaths, fewer robberies and bank attacks, the governor told GLOBO.
For Antonio Lima, a sociologist who studies the evolution of criminal factions in Bahia, the speech contrasts with the stimulus for police repression since Jack Wagner’s first PT government in 2006, which strengthened a series of tactical groups within the military police. The incoming administration began with a statement from Gov. Rui Costa, who likened police officers who shoot suspects to “gunmen at the hoop.” Researchers say that unlike operations with record death tolls like the one in Rio, the scenario in Bahia continues under Geronimo’s control and is one of continued police lethality “in a retail setting.”
— Gendarmes typically serve for 25 years, and the PT has ruled Bahia for 20 years. In other words, virtually the entire force of the current prime minister was formed by the PT government, which consciously chose the ostensible model of combat, sociologists say.
Marcelo Werner, secretary of Bahia’s Ministry of Security, claims that the violence in the northeastern state is a reflection of the migration of criminal factions from the southeast over the past decade, “bringing with them the modus operandi of territorial control.”
— Most violent deaths are related to sectarian actions, whether due to clashes with security forces or between security forces. For our part, we are investing in police training to carry out more competent crackdowns, and we are stressing to the federal government the importance of the Security PEC to provide these resources,” Werner said.
In Ceará state, where the police fatality rate is below the national average, Governor Hermano de Freitas (PT) has praised the actions of the gendarmerie that led to the suspect’s death, in contrast to Geronimo’s speech in Bahia state. Last week, Hermano defended security forces, saying they were “carrying out necessary confrontations” and stressed that “in a confrontation between police and criminals, the criminals should die.”
Despite its low police fatality rate, the state has the third-highest violent death rate in the country this year, a category that includes murders and robberies, after Bahia and Amapá states.
— Professional politicians, including those on the left, understood that this repression speech would get them votes. It responds to the sense of urgency of those suffering as victims of the actions of armed groups, but it solves nothing. When the police carry out an operation and dismantle a plan, the factions repeat it the next day, says sociologist Luis Fabio Paiva, coordinator of the Institute for the Study of Violence at the Federal University of Ceará.
The state government of Ceará did not comment in response to inquiries from this report. The search for a discourse that appeals to the masses comes amid evidence of advances by factions such as the CV and the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), with recent reports of expulsions from the Fortaleza metropolitan region at the request of the factions.
In some cases, organized crime has infiltrated politics in municipalities in the interior of Ceará state. In Santa Quitería, the electoral court stripped former Mayor Braguinha (PSB) of his office after finding factional support for his campaign. The investigation revealed that two city hall employees drove from the state of Ceará to Rio’s Rocinha favela, paying the CV leader 1.5 million reais in exchange for their support for the then-mayor.
The Palacio do Planalto’s bet to achieve results against the advance of factions was put to the test in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, which borders Ceará, under the management of PT member Fatima Bezerra. Last month, the Ministry of Justice launched a pilot project to restore territory developed in collaboration with the University of São Paulo (USP) in communities in Natal that were affected by the CV. In addition to arresting suspects, the aim is to provide public services such as lighting and health centers to prevent criminal groups from returning.
On another front, Justice Minister Ricardo Lewandowski last week met with the security chiefs of the states that make up the Northeast Consortium to fine-tune actions in the region. The meeting ended with management’s declaration of support for the Security PEC, which had previously been the subject of criticism from Bahia Governor Geronimo Rodríguez and others for the risk of “infiltration” into the states.
According to participants in the meeting, Lewandowski praised recent operations aimed at providing financial support to criminal factions in states such as Bahia and Piauí.
One of them was triggered last week by the management of Rafael Fonteles (PT) and was derived from the Piauí of Carbono Occulto, a PF activity targeting the PCC money laundering scheme. This operation is treated as a parameter that is replicated in each state by the Palácio do Planalto.
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