Recognizing that the foreign exchange market will stabilize and political risks after the election will decrease, City analysts are adjusting their dollar forecasts for next year on expectations of increased foreign exchange earnings from exports and investment.
With the aim of estimating what the wholesale price of the dollar will be towards December 2026. i professional We analyzed how domestic and foreign banks and consulting firms performed most accurate prediction According to Focus Economics’ global survey, last year
In other words, the analyst who best predicted the exchange rate course in 2024 was taken as a guide to new forecasts for the coming months. history of his success them sauce more reliable Within the International Panel of Economists.
Actually in January of last year Citigroup Global market predicted that the wholesale dollar would close in 2024 at approximately $1,050, but the effective value was $1,032. This minimal difference ranked the company among the most accurate forecasters among 40 experts surveyed in a global study.
Dollar price forecast by “number one” consulting firm
Based on these references, These analysts’ forecasts for next December, issued last January (2025), call for the wholesale dollar to end at $1,427.
or more numbers After 10 months, it will be about the same as the current $1,437. It is traded in the wholesale sector.
flat, More foreign currency comes in through exports and investmentcould match the numbers predicted last January by Citigroup Global Marketing.
It’s worth remembering that in recent months, economists have been adjusting their forecasts based on both the situation in Argentina, changes in mood, and economic and political news. Most of all, this is due to the last election and its impact on the sale of Treasury currency.
In fact, the report focus economy Since last month, Citigroup Global Marketing The wholesale dollar at the end of December was expected to be $1,518. a Estimated devaluation rate for 2025 as a whole is 47%This number is barely higher than the expected average inflation rate of 42% over the same period.
lastly Market Expectations Survey (REM)This is a survey conducted by the central bank of approximately 40 national economists. Year-end wholesale exchange rate is $1,500That’s lower than the $1,536 forecast for the same day last month, when pre-election tensions were in full swing.
When referenced from the performed operation The end-December dollar wholesale price negotiated on Friday in the Matova Rofex options and futures market was $1,475.
To get ideas, best float band It is set in mid-April when the central bank announces the retail exchange rate and is updated monthly at a rate of 1%. This exchange rate is currently available at: $1,499.5.
And in the latest Focus Economics report, corresponding to November, by 2026, Citigroup Global Marketing’s forecast for the end of next December shows that the wholesale dollar will $1,776, This was a decrease of 61 pesos compared to the amount predicted in last month’s survey on the same day ($1,837).
An interesting fact is that the December 2026 consensus of more than 40 economists from domestic and foreign banks and consulting firms surveyed was almost the same as the Citigroup Global Marketing consensus, which was $1,774.
For now, the market is waiting for what’s next. exchange the silenceThis is because per capita dollar income is expected to start increasing due to the tax and labor reforms that the government is trying to push through. export and investment.
” Currency markets have remained relatively calm as market expectations have improved. This is accompanied by increased foreign exchange inflows in the official market and a more stable external financial scenario. “Central bank intervention and easing of compensation demands have helped keep exchange rate differentials at their lowest levels in recent months, reinforcing the scenario of reduced exchange rate tensions,” he said. Ignacio MoralesChief Investment Officer of Wise Capital.
What the most accurate Argentine consulting companies predict
even Argentine consulting firm close to forecast for January 2024 By the end of the year, i.e. echo gowe believe the wholesale dollar will reach the end of December 2026. $1,658. This number was lower than previously expected.
”A successful government return to the market could reduce inflation and increase the supply of dollars, especially from the capital account. What will allow us to lower the exchange rate in the coming months“He claims that sebastian menescardiEconomist, Eco Go Associate Director.
To add more, “The political results of the national elections have changed the current scenario.”That’s because while last month it was predicted that the government would not win, now predictions of a forward devaluation have been reversed. ”
Beyond that, Menescaldi still “While much remains to be defined, It’s unclear what will happen with monetary programs, what will happen with exchange programs, what will happen with floating bands, how central banks will buy or not buy foreign exchange reserves. “There are still many questions and things that need to be set out to see clearly what the exchange rate will be.”
At present, it is expected that The rate of increase in the dollar price is low and the rest of the economic references.
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