Argentina is facing a wheat campaign, the results of which will excite the agricultural sector, with 23 million tons produced in 2021/2022, potentially setting a new record or approaching the current one. After a historic wettest winter in 40 years, productivity forecasts for the 2025/26 cycle are approximately 22 million tons, Even up to 24 million tons, far above 18.5 million since the last campaign. In detail, the country doubled its exports in the previous cycle; 7.7 million tons with a volume of 13.3 million tons. According to various personal calculations, the wheat complex is Additional USD 1.13 billion to the national economy compared to the previous campaign; 2.86 billion USD. Overseas sales exceed US$3 billion for flour, and could reach around US$4 billion if the barley division is added.
for Martin Biscaisak President of the Argentine Wheat Association (Argentrigo), the current campaign begins “The area and performance standpoint is better.” As stated in detail, “national production is 22 million tons When the exportable amount reaches the following values: 13.3 million tons. ”
The leader said that in the previous campaign, “almost 7.7 million tons The average FOB is $225 per tonleft around 1.732 billion USD in foreign currency. ”
“Applying the current Argentina standard FOB, $215produced by export 2.86 billion USDthat is, close to the increase in foreign exchange 1.13 billion USD”, Biscaysak indicates the following Nation.
This improvement, he argued, “is mainly explained by the following reasons.” Maximum export capacity” He cautioned that “the final number will depend on both yield and the combination of industry, exports and FOB prices at the time of shipment.”
However, Secretary Argentrigo said: Background challenge: “To turn tons into sustainable income, Argentina needs to stop competing solely on FOB prices. Today, we are doing that.” The country with the cheapest wheat in the world. need Reduce logistics costs and eliminate tax distortions It designs commercial strategies that prevent value addition, specializing quality market offers and diversifying destinations. If we do not act now, increased volumes may lead to greater foreign exchange flows, but the chain of low value added and high commercial vulnerability will continue to perpetuate. ”
From an economic point of view, Gustavo Lopezconsulting company analyst agri trend, agreed to The panorama is very encouraging. “If everything goes well from now on, there is at least a chance that 14 million tons exported” Estimate. “Today’s FOB prices are: $210 and $215. So it gives you some USD 2.95 billionand adding some 500,000 tons of flour to $400 per tonrepresents other Additional USD 200 million. So he Wheat complex could exceed USD 3.1 billion.” pointed out the economist.
Additionally, Lopez calculated the income Export duty (DEX) until March 2026 will be 9.5%. Analysts said the tax burden would be “approximately”. 300 million USD Just for wheat. ”
He also expanded his horizons to the whole bountiful harvest. “If you add barley,at least 5.2 million tons and some 3.5 million units planned for exportat average FOB price 200 USD. it brings others 700 million USD. In total, fines may remain. Almost 4 billion US dollars in foreign currency”, It was noticeable.
Mr. Lopez recalled that some of that income has already begun to be recorded. “In the case of wheat, it’s already coming in.” 2.5 million tons, Under the scheme of Zero withholding taxwhich corresponds to approximately 500 million USD It has already been decided. About 350,000 tonnes will flow between the two barleys (brewing and feed), which is an increase of about $60 million. So some 560 million USD for the complex’s contents. he pointed out.
He is a producer and former vice president of the Argentine Rural Confederation (CRA). nestor rouletteclaims that there was a productivity leap in wheat. “This represents a 25% increase compared to the previous year.” And it will have a very positive economic impact on this country. “If this amount is realized, the increase in dollar income from the wheat complex will be US$ 1 billion” Roulette emphasized.
According to his report: “Thank God for the wheat.” The total export income of this complex will be: USD 2,839 million in 2024/25 to USD 3,894 million in 2025/26the average FOB price is estimated as: USD 220 per ton.
Mr. Ruhle added that good weather and an increase in planted area are expected to result in exportable volumes. 17.7 million tons. If the momentum of the previous campaign is repeated, i.e. 55% of the total was exported between December and March, foreign exchange earnings in the next four months “could exceed historical exchange earnings.” 2.1 billion USD Just wheat. ”
According to Rule data, wheat production in 2024/25 was 18.5 million tonnes, of which 6.3 million tonnes were for domestic consumption and 12.2 million tonnes were exported. For the 2025/26 campaign, exports are forecast to increase by 17.7 million tonnes, or 5.4 million tonnes, to 24 million tonnes.
In conclusion, the good wheat campaign and the recovery of good crops are encouraging trends for agriculture. Because of its good yield, large surface area, and stable price, serial complex may be able to contribute Over 4 billion USD Foreign currency and its surroundings USD 350 million by Withholding tax of wheat and barley.
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