WASHINGTON — Around lunchtime the day we met, Fatih BirolThe soft-spoken Turkish energy economist returned to his hotel room and sat in front of his computer munching on two hard-boiled eggs and a banana.
With his usual humility, Birol was preparing for a meeting that could have serious consequences. an organization he has anonymously led for the past decade; international energy agency (IEA)has just come under severe attack from the Trump administration.
He was about to meet with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who had just publicly criticized the IEA, calling predictions that global demand for fossil fuels would soon begin to decline “ridiculous.” Republicans threatened to significantly reduce U.S. government funding for the IEA if the agency did not change its position.
The mere fact that this conference took place attests to the enormous influence the IEA gained under Birol’s administration. Ten years ago, he probably would have met Wright’s assistant, he told me. He is currently engaged in a verbal dispute with the US government.
Birol likes to joke that he is “the most boring man in the world”. Indeed, it radiates bureaucratic simplicity. But he also spent a decade deftly leading the IEA; Energy has re-emerged as a geopolitical weapon. dDiscuss how tackling climate change is changing economic and diplomatic relations around the worldJust as the Trump administration is working to reverse the global movement toward renewable energy by producing, consuming, and exporting as much fossil fuel as possible.
Birol reiterated his warning to the fossil fuel industry: “Adapt or fail”especially since solar energy is growing at a rate that even the IEA underestimates.
Whether or not you agree with the IEA; A constant stream of data-driven reports routinely disrupts markets and impacts billions of dollars in investments. And it’s garnered praise and scorn among politicians, energy executives and climate change activists who hang on Birol’s every word.
More than a dozen countries graced Birol with state honors. He is a recipient of Japan’s Order of the Rising Sun, First Class, the highest national decoration awarded to a civilian, and the Order of Zayed, awarded by the United Arab Emirates in honor of the founder of the country. (The Order of Zayed includes a solid gold necklace consisting of 14 engraved rings.)
Birol now regularly appears in photos alongside the world’s most powerful leaders at lavish, high-stakes summits.
“The more important we become, the more people want us to prove them right,” Birol said, referring to the attention he receives from people across the political and economic spectrum. “But our reason for being is data. Data always wins,” he said.
However, collecting raw data from dozens of member states is only part of the IEA’s work. Under Mr. Birol’s leadership, the IEA An organization that outlines the different paths the world can take in energy use and provides a roadmap for achieving them.
Even if the IEA has occasionally been wrong on some of the biggest issues, such as the growth rate of solar energy or how quickly coal use will decline, the organization’s members, primarily Western countries, have increasingly looked to it for guidance. Perhaps the most important question is whether the world is approaching peak demand for fossil fuels.—In response to this, the IEA has considered its response many times.
The mere fact that the IEA made such a prediction caused friction between the IEA and the Trump administration.virtually dismantling all of America’s climate policy. The United States contributes approximately 14% of the IEA budget. Republicans blamed publishing institutions “Politicized Information to Support Climate Change Policy Advocacy.”
Many in the fossil fuel industry share a pessimistic view of the IEA. The president of oil-producing OPEC said this year that the IEA: “Anti-oil story” and their The roadmap was “unrealistic.”
But Birol says he’s not telling anyone what to do, just what is likely to happen. And for now, persuaded Washington not to impose sanctions. On the other hand, the organization We welcome two new members from India and Brazil, who are major players in the energy sector.
Javed Ashraf, who knows Birol well and will serve as India’s ambassador to France from 2020 to 2024, said the IEA’s forecasts are particularly important for countries seeking to balance economic growth with pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“What Fatih has done is to apply across the board data collection and modeling at a granular level, which will give us a clear picture of the kinds of efforts needed to meet climate goals,” Ashraf said. “In a sense, This is more relevant than the UN climate negotiations. The IEA reports them rather than the other way around. ”
The International Energy Agency was founded by then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the 1970s, when climate change was not part of the political debate. The agency’s original mission was to monitor global oil supplies and help countries coordinate to prevent energy crises. In 1973, a group of Arab oil producers blocked crude oil exports to the United States and other countries in protest of support for Israel. This led to soaring prices, fuel shortages, and an economic depression known as stagflation.
Birol was a young film student in Vienna when the IEA was in its infancy. He was into surrealism. According to him, only one of his films survives. Shot in 8mm format, it is 18 minutes long and is titled “The Lyrical Murder of Love”. The film has no dialogue and the soundtrack is Tchaikovsky’s Sad Symphony No. 6 in B minor. “This is not a happy story,” Birol commented.
However, she was unable to make a living from films as she got married at 18 and had a child at 19. He turned to energy economics and took a part-time job at a produce market. After graduating, I became a data analyst for OPEC.
He joined the IEA and was elected Director-General in 2015 after a 20-year career. Alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, and fracked natural gas were on the verge of significant growth. The agency expanded its focus; From oil to analysis of how to power vehicles, data centers, and heavy industry. he Climate change has begun to emerge as a hot political issue As the causes and the scientific relationship to greenhouse gas emissions become clearer, greenhouse gas.
Immediately after taking office, Mr. Birol called for fundamental changes in the way the organization forecasts. Until now, the agency has only been able to predict what would happen to global fossil fuel demand if countries simply maintained their current policies. Such reports generally suggest a long-term increase in fossil fuel consumption.
But in 2020, the agency replaced that scenario with one that takes into account the policies countries are most likely to implement, primarily based on their emissions reduction commitments under global climate negotiations. At that time, Birol said he made the following suggestion: A more realistic vision for the world’s energy future. But it was also the beginning of a rift between the IEA and many fossil fuel supporters.
The IEA also published so-called net-zero emissions scenarios, which do not simply predict the future but set out 400 milestones the world could reach to stop emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by 2050.
A key milestone was the elimination of all investment in new coal, oil and gas fields. This has become a slogan for climate change activists, but Birol later clarified that the IEA was not setting out a plan of action, only saying that the world would eventually become carbon neutral as it moves towards carbon neutrality.
While the IEA’s efforts have garnered attention and criticism, Birol remains popular. He was unanimously elected by member states for a third four-year term until 2027. Additionally, the institution itself doubled in size under his leadership. Birol proudly recalled that more than 1,000 people recently applied for entry-level positions similar to the one he held in the 1990s.
This year, under pressure from Washington, the IEA reinstated its original scenario of “current policy” supplementing other policies. The annual report “World Energy Outlook” will be published this week.
But as often happens when you try to please everyone, you may end up dissatisfied with everyone. “I’m here to get people to think about the future, to actually imagine it, and that’s very difficult,” he said. “Climate change is a good example. People only pay attention when a major disaster occurs. But you need a plan to deal with it.”
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